Sam's club gas prices
Water Shielding Complete Enclosure
2023.06.03 00:21 themasterpodcaster Water Shielding Complete Enclosure
Method One
This uses 1.25 wide 2.33ft tall 15 gallon cylindrical water containers. I'm thinking I need two layers so that I can offset the first with the second layer on the outside. Each container on the outside has its center blocking the spot where the two containers on the inside layer
meet. This makes a wall of water without weakness I hope. The wall needs to be 3.25f so it needs to be taller. On top of these containers on the inside layer of them is a single row of collapsible 5.3 gallons water containers.
I'm thinking Ill put a plywood between them and the containers underneath them so they can be pushed together and fit closely together and so the different diameter doesn't cause them to go off.
The top of the 15 gallon containers has a spot at the top where there's a gap thats a weakness. Im thinking Ill put 1 gallon water bag there perhaps partially empty to make it more malleable and the weight of
the 5 gallon container will hopefully mush it down so it fills in the uneven gaps in the top of the 15 gallon container. In front of the row of 5 gallon containers on top of the 15 gallon containers Ill put a pool tube to help block the weakness on top of the 15 gallon containers.
Ill overlap these pool tubes at the end in order to create a totally unbroken wall of water. Because the wall needs to be little taller Ill add large fomentek water bags at the top. The large fomentek bag has its top 6 inches lying on top of the 5 gallon container
and its held in place by a couple bricks wrapped in tarp or something temporarily. The bags hang down on the inside and overlap hopefully by 6 inches from bag to bag. Then you put 4 3x6x1.25 giant 140 gallon water bags on top of the structure lying perpendicular
to it. They overlap all the water walls by a foot. Then the pool tubes are put over the gaps between them. When there full you slide your hand under and remove the bricks from the water bags if possible. Or the top could be made of water bags.
Method 2
You use 6 or possibly 8 140 gallon water bags for the main wall of water. There 3ft wide, 6ft long and 1.25ft thick. First you position and fill the 15 gallon containers. You put 4 on the outside of every water bag. They weigh 120lb each and the water bag weighs
1100lb. So with 4 on one side weighing almost half as much as the water bag and the basalt and frame wall on the other side it might keep them standing up well enough. They 15 gallons are 2.33ft high and the water bags are 3ft tall standing on there side so tall
enough to hold them up. Putting another 500lb of sandbags on top of the 4 containers might work well if the water containers arnt enough. You position a 15 gallon in front of the spot where two water bags meet and then put a 5.3 gallon container on top so its
as tall as the water bag. You can also put fomenteck water bags over the crack as well if you can make them stay in place. You could two to shield one end and then two each side. The two on the end extend way outside of the actual area your shielding.
The ones on both sides form a tight wall along with the two on the end but then extend of the other side somewhat. The width of the basalt structure is 4.25ft and the length of the water bag is 6ft. So you could push the two that extend from the side of the end over
.85ft each to make room to fit the final end water bag between them. You might be able to overlap the where the waterbags meet on the lengthwise sides as well. There are different sizes you might be able to use to make it fit better. The roof of the water shielding might
bend down .25ft to meet the wall or you could put fomenteck waterbags on top perhaps. Like with the first method you might need to put something light weight on top of the structure to help prop up the water ceiling that the top of the basalt structure is roughly
level with the top of the water wall. This is a nice method in that you be able to set it up quickly because there you dont have to postion a bunch of things carefully. They just start in the position and it will only take a small number of hours for a garden hose to fill all
the containers from what I read. Its also nice because you can keep better track of the small amount of cracks. You could also use 4 inch fence posts and fence post foam or concrete possibly to hold up the water bladders. You could dig it with a 3 inch auger attached
to a well powered drill instead of using a fence post digger, shovel or a real auger. To protect the fomenteck water bags and the 5.3 gallon constrainers the more delicate ones you could use 1 or two layers of heavy cheap moving blankets.
Hopefully this would block pretty decent air guns and stuff that gang stalkers might try to shoot at them and you could protect it with plywood from the most vulnerable direction. Can also protect them from any natural damage. Then you can put a heavy tarp
to help protect them from the sun. Poly tubing might also work for water shielding especially for the roof where there isnt much pressure on it or for shielding cracks but I dont know about how you close them so no idea if it works.
The water shielding can act as an automatic sound barrior as you build I think and while you test the structure.
HOW MANY 15 GALLON WATER CONTAINERS FOR A DOUBLE LAYER AROUND A 9XFT LONG 5FT WIDE BASALT STRUCTURE 6o of them about $10000
9 containers long is 11.25ft nearly long enough to the length of the structure 9 plus 2 containers which is 11.5
18 for first layer on sides
8 for first layer on ends since it takes exactly 4 to equal 5ft and fill in the space
26 for first layer
sides second layer is 22
ends second layer is 12
second layer is 34
total is 60 for double layer 1 heigh containers costs $1000
15 gallon containers
https://www.thecarycompany.com/15-gallon-natural-tight-head-plastic-drum-reconditioned?utm_source=google_shopping&gclid=CjwKCAjw04yjBhApEiwAJcvNoT17vQCNe5vGlbW7CsZwLvpR_zIfcWKd_kqJI9DiGmnCwOBDVTTwOxoCj9YQAvD_BwE#specifications
140 gallon water bags and other sizes
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0BL29YQKB/ref=ox_sc_act_title_3?smid=A1UJFOP8HLWSUN&psc=1
large fomentek water bag
https://www.amazon.com/Large-Fomentek-Hot-Cold-Watedp/B00WVPNWZC/ref=sr_1_9?crid=336IIOOXN93R&keywords=fomenteck%2Bwater%2Btherapy%2Bbags&qid=1685220594&sprefix=fomenteck%2Bwater%2Btherapy%2Bbags%2Caps%2C84&sr=8-9&th=1
large fomentek water bags in bulk cheaper
https://www.backbenimble.com/fomentek-hot-water-bottles.htm?msclkid=6459c66592211766d702a217101d5398
1.3 gallon containers
36 Pcs 1.3 Gallon Collapsible Water Storage Bag Water Container Bag Emergency Jug Clear Plastic Storage Pouch Freezable Water Carrier Tank Foldable Bottle for Outdoor Sport Camping Hiking Backpack
5.3 gallon collapsible containers not quite as big as they say for the ones I measured that i got from walmart after I filled them up to the absolute top. It was 10 inches wide 12 inches deep and 10 inches high or something.
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B09MVNJG17/ref=ox_sc_act_title_46?smid=AFACUH7IM17NK&psc=1
pool water bag 10ft long and is it 1ft wide? $9 and free shipping
https://intheswim.com/p/10-single-water-bag-blue/72909.html#description-btn-div
HIDING THE STRUCTURE
You could use a pop up gazebo or a more quickly set up greenhouse or possibly a soft storage shed wich is similar if there big enough. You set up the pop up gazebo and then build it inside of it. The gazebo is more respectable and accepted by
landlords and stuff then a big tent or tarp. Put a heavy tarp over the gazebo possibly to protect it from weather and other damage. If the amount of steel or aluminum in it is too much in the gazebo and messes up the shielding you might be able move it off of the
structure with a person or 4 wheeled doly on each leg ( just a random idea).
IMPORTANT TO MOVE WITH URGENCY
The economy will get worse as far as I know and will possibly collapse. Gas prices will rise during the summer at least. Basalt and other materials and items might become less available.
The warm weather will end eventually making it a lot harder to complete a large structure. I certainly feel texteme urgency because of my rapid mental and physical decline and also these reasons.
Also as far as I understand it which is quite limited the world is getting worse and more controling, gang stalking will probably get more alot more empowered and there technology is getting better.
But the best way to move effectively is still to be smart and deliberate to test things as far as I know. It takes time to be smart so you should get started on it.
QUESTIONS
I didnt condense my questions enough i just tried to cover everything mostly even though I must have missed alot of things. I leave it to you to judge what information I need the most and to answer the questions and give other information
in the most helpful way you have time for. What I need urgently is to order my basalt and my water containers and I can figure out the other details as the stuffs on the way. So I need to be able to decide on a rough plan and on a type of basalt so I can order my
basalt. I need to know if water shielding is going to helpful for me and how much water I need.
So I'm trying to block RNM because sinking up there attacks with my thoughts is an incredibly important part of the attacks. I want to block the mental attacks themselves but blocking the RNM will probably be enough to make that stop
by itself. I also need to block them making me feel emotionally numb, low energy, extremely depressed lack a void of happiness chemicals or something and making extremely unintelligent and cant form thoughts. These symptoms all vary at the
same time and seem parts of the same attack. Sometimes when its bad its also very hard to move and I can perceive my body as heavy and stuck and strange. My consciousness is compressed and receads as if I dont exist and I become dethatched
Also reduces anxiety. Happened when I was writing this because speaking about it is a trigger for them and I had to wait for find the words. Other TIs talk about similar symptoms.
These symptoms can all change
an extreme amount in just a second since its artificial and they change based on triggers that hold an emotional charge and significance to my attackers.
So i'm only trying to block them attacking my brain.
How should the basalt be around my body compared to around my head?
How thick should it be around my feet compared to my body?
I think you said that you need it double thick above your head and behind it but in the pictures of your set up it showed 1 full crate above and 1 full crate behind the same as the full crate on either side.
Is it true that you need it double thick above and double thick protection behind while in a prone position?
Why is that? Is above more important just because of the angle of attack or that part of the brain?
Is this also going to be true with me whos not trying to block physical attacks? Will my forehead or face or top of head or both be more vulnerable?
Since all im trying to block are the RNM, mental attacks and perhaps nervous system influence ( just totally guessing about that last comment )
In your photos you have pillowcases with basalt on top of the side crates and back crate covering the crack where they meet the top crate. The pillowcases only give you like 3 inches of protection. How does that actually work to block the crack?
Why dont you need basalt to block the vertical cracks between the crates?
I cant get a good handle on why you dont need 2 crates high 2 crates deep and 3 crates wide with one removed for your head to get the protection.
Why dont you need basalt to block the vertical cracks between the crates?
How much do you think the protection varies by thickness? If you double it or half it how much does the protection multiply or divide?
What's the highest amount you think youve divided the attacks by and what was the weakness that stopped you from dividing it further?
Could I divide it more than that and how?
Do you think RNM and mental attacks will require more or less basalt then physical attacks. They seem to be able to intrude on my mind for reading or attacking to a
very unusual degree and none of my shielding tests have effected it at all for many years although I've done some which might be very strong ones.
WATER SHIELDING QUSTIONS
Do you think I need water with my basalt since it will cost me $1000 or $1500 to $2500? I think i've seen you say it blocks DC heavy pressure. Is that a single type of physical attack or an important aspect of electromagnetism?
What are the chances they could use DC heavy pressure in a mental?
Will all types of attacks be blocked with the combination of basalt and water if you have enough?
is that the magic combination for everyone or just for your physical attacks.
Whats the ratio in thickness of water to basalt for a full shield of water?
How much do you think the amount of time I spend inside it will affect how well it works. Like will spending only 2 hours in it be a lot inferior then being able to spend 24 hours or a week.
What do you think about how to build it?
Do you think it would be ok to use small nail gun nails in the frame since the mainstay bags that you have metal on them?
What are angles of attack and how does it make sense to set up my thicker protection
I need any kind of help you can give me with this project. Iv been working on this plan and this post for 6 to 12 days where the majority of my work everyday was on it. Then other weeks and months
on similar plans and research on making basalt shielding happen. So it takes me forever to do anything even though I labor all day during the time im not recovering from it. It doesnt seem like I'm capable of
taking in the information on what basalt shields and on the measurements and to figure out how to classify my attacks. I had to make a simple summary of the most simple aspects of using basalt and water
to understand it and that must have taken me a day or more of work to piece together different posts and to organize.
submitted by themasterpodcaster to TargetedEnergyWeapons [link] [comments]
Method One
This uses 1.25 wide 2.33ft tall 15 gallon cylindrical water containers. I'm thinking I need two layers so that I can offset the first with the second layer on the outside. Each container on the outside has its center blocking the spot where the two containers on the inside layer
meet. This makes a wall of water without weakness I hope. The wall needs to be 3.25f so it needs to be taller. On top of these containers on the inside layer of them is a single row of collapsible 5.3 gallons water containers.
I'm thinking Ill put a plywood between them and the containers underneath them so they can be pushed together and fit closely together and so the different diameter doesn't cause them to go off.
The top of the 15 gallon containers has a spot at the top where there's a gap thats a weakness. Im thinking Ill put 1 gallon water bag there perhaps partially empty to make it more malleable and the weight of
the 5 gallon container will hopefully mush it down so it fills in the uneven gaps in the top of the 15 gallon container. In front of the row of 5 gallon containers on top of the 15 gallon containers Ill put a pool tube to help block the weakness on top of the 15 gallon containers.
Ill overlap these pool tubes at the end in order to create a totally unbroken wall of water. Because the wall needs to be little taller Ill add large fomentek water bags at the top. The large fomentek bag has its top 6 inches lying on top of the 5 gallon container
and its held in place by a couple bricks wrapped in tarp or something temporarily. The bags hang down on the inside and overlap hopefully by 6 inches from bag to bag. Then you put 4 3x6x1.25 giant 140 gallon water bags on top of the structure lying perpendicular
to it. They overlap all the water walls by a foot. Then the pool tubes are put over the gaps between them. When there full you slide your hand under and remove the bricks from the water bags if possible. Or the top could be made of water bags.
Method 2
You use 6 or possibly 8 140 gallon water bags for the main wall of water. There 3ft wide, 6ft long and 1.25ft thick. First you position and fill the 15 gallon containers. You put 4 on the outside of every water bag. They weigh 120lb each and the water bag weighs
1100lb. So with 4 on one side weighing almost half as much as the water bag and the basalt and frame wall on the other side it might keep them standing up well enough. They 15 gallons are 2.33ft high and the water bags are 3ft tall standing on there side so tall
enough to hold them up. Putting another 500lb of sandbags on top of the 4 containers might work well if the water containers arnt enough. You position a 15 gallon in front of the spot where two water bags meet and then put a 5.3 gallon container on top so its
as tall as the water bag. You can also put fomenteck water bags over the crack as well if you can make them stay in place. You could two to shield one end and then two each side. The two on the end extend way outside of the actual area your shielding.
The ones on both sides form a tight wall along with the two on the end but then extend of the other side somewhat. The width of the basalt structure is 4.25ft and the length of the water bag is 6ft. So you could push the two that extend from the side of the end over
.85ft each to make room to fit the final end water bag between them. You might be able to overlap the where the waterbags meet on the lengthwise sides as well. There are different sizes you might be able to use to make it fit better. The roof of the water shielding might
bend down .25ft to meet the wall or you could put fomenteck waterbags on top perhaps. Like with the first method you might need to put something light weight on top of the structure to help prop up the water ceiling that the top of the basalt structure is roughly
level with the top of the water wall. This is a nice method in that you be able to set it up quickly because there you dont have to postion a bunch of things carefully. They just start in the position and it will only take a small number of hours for a garden hose to fill all
the containers from what I read. Its also nice because you can keep better track of the small amount of cracks. You could also use 4 inch fence posts and fence post foam or concrete possibly to hold up the water bladders. You could dig it with a 3 inch auger attached
to a well powered drill instead of using a fence post digger, shovel or a real auger. To protect the fomenteck water bags and the 5.3 gallon constrainers the more delicate ones you could use 1 or two layers of heavy cheap moving blankets.
Hopefully this would block pretty decent air guns and stuff that gang stalkers might try to shoot at them and you could protect it with plywood from the most vulnerable direction. Can also protect them from any natural damage. Then you can put a heavy tarp
to help protect them from the sun. Poly tubing might also work for water shielding especially for the roof where there isnt much pressure on it or for shielding cracks but I dont know about how you close them so no idea if it works.
The water shielding can act as an automatic sound barrior as you build I think and while you test the structure.
HOW MANY 15 GALLON WATER CONTAINERS FOR A DOUBLE LAYER AROUND A 9XFT LONG 5FT WIDE BASALT STRUCTURE 6o of them about $10000
9 containers long is 11.25ft nearly long enough to the length of the structure 9 plus 2 containers which is 11.5
18 for first layer on sides
8 for first layer on ends since it takes exactly 4 to equal 5ft and fill in the space
26 for first layer
sides second layer is 22
ends second layer is 12
second layer is 34
total is 60 for double layer 1 heigh containers costs $1000
15 gallon containers
https://www.thecarycompany.com/15-gallon-natural-tight-head-plastic-drum-reconditioned?utm_source=google_shopping&gclid=CjwKCAjw04yjBhApEiwAJcvNoT17vQCNe5vGlbW7CsZwLvpR_zIfcWKd_kqJI9DiGmnCwOBDVTTwOxoCj9YQAvD_BwE#specifications
140 gallon water bags and other sizes
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0BL29YQKB/ref=ox_sc_act_title_3?smid=A1UJFOP8HLWSUN&psc=1
large fomentek water bag
https://www.amazon.com/Large-Fomentek-Hot-Cold-Watedp/B00WVPNWZC/ref=sr_1_9?crid=336IIOOXN93R&keywords=fomenteck%2Bwater%2Btherapy%2Bbags&qid=1685220594&sprefix=fomenteck%2Bwater%2Btherapy%2Bbags%2Caps%2C84&sr=8-9&th=1
large fomentek water bags in bulk cheaper
https://www.backbenimble.com/fomentek-hot-water-bottles.htm?msclkid=6459c66592211766d702a217101d5398
1.3 gallon containers
36 Pcs 1.3 Gallon Collapsible Water Storage Bag Water Container Bag Emergency Jug Clear Plastic Storage Pouch Freezable Water Carrier Tank Foldable Bottle for Outdoor Sport Camping Hiking Backpack
5.3 gallon collapsible containers not quite as big as they say for the ones I measured that i got from walmart after I filled them up to the absolute top. It was 10 inches wide 12 inches deep and 10 inches high or something.
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B09MVNJG17/ref=ox_sc_act_title_46?smid=AFACUH7IM17NK&psc=1
pool water bag 10ft long and is it 1ft wide? $9 and free shipping
https://intheswim.com/p/10-single-water-bag-blue/72909.html#description-btn-div
HIDING THE STRUCTURE
You could use a pop up gazebo or a more quickly set up greenhouse or possibly a soft storage shed wich is similar if there big enough. You set up the pop up gazebo and then build it inside of it. The gazebo is more respectable and accepted by
landlords and stuff then a big tent or tarp. Put a heavy tarp over the gazebo possibly to protect it from weather and other damage. If the amount of steel or aluminum in it is too much in the gazebo and messes up the shielding you might be able move it off of the
structure with a person or 4 wheeled doly on each leg ( just a random idea).
IMPORTANT TO MOVE WITH URGENCY
The economy will get worse as far as I know and will possibly collapse. Gas prices will rise during the summer at least. Basalt and other materials and items might become less available.
The warm weather will end eventually making it a lot harder to complete a large structure. I certainly feel texteme urgency because of my rapid mental and physical decline and also these reasons.
Also as far as I understand it which is quite limited the world is getting worse and more controling, gang stalking will probably get more alot more empowered and there technology is getting better.
But the best way to move effectively is still to be smart and deliberate to test things as far as I know. It takes time to be smart so you should get started on it.
QUESTIONS
I didnt condense my questions enough i just tried to cover everything mostly even though I must have missed alot of things. I leave it to you to judge what information I need the most and to answer the questions and give other information
in the most helpful way you have time for. What I need urgently is to order my basalt and my water containers and I can figure out the other details as the stuffs on the way. So I need to be able to decide on a rough plan and on a type of basalt so I can order my
basalt. I need to know if water shielding is going to helpful for me and how much water I need.
So I'm trying to block RNM because sinking up there attacks with my thoughts is an incredibly important part of the attacks. I want to block the mental attacks themselves but blocking the RNM will probably be enough to make that stop
by itself. I also need to block them making me feel emotionally numb, low energy, extremely depressed lack a void of happiness chemicals or something and making extremely unintelligent and cant form thoughts. These symptoms all vary at the
same time and seem parts of the same attack. Sometimes when its bad its also very hard to move and I can perceive my body as heavy and stuck and strange. My consciousness is compressed and receads as if I dont exist and I become dethatched
Also reduces anxiety. Happened when I was writing this because speaking about it is a trigger for them and I had to wait for find the words. Other TIs talk about similar symptoms.
These symptoms can all change
an extreme amount in just a second since its artificial and they change based on triggers that hold an emotional charge and significance to my attackers.
So i'm only trying to block them attacking my brain.
How should the basalt be around my body compared to around my head?
How thick should it be around my feet compared to my body?
I think you said that you need it double thick above your head and behind it but in the pictures of your set up it showed 1 full crate above and 1 full crate behind the same as the full crate on either side.
Is it true that you need it double thick above and double thick protection behind while in a prone position?
Why is that? Is above more important just because of the angle of attack or that part of the brain?
Is this also going to be true with me whos not trying to block physical attacks? Will my forehead or face or top of head or both be more vulnerable?
Since all im trying to block are the RNM, mental attacks and perhaps nervous system influence ( just totally guessing about that last comment )
In your photos you have pillowcases with basalt on top of the side crates and back crate covering the crack where they meet the top crate. The pillowcases only give you like 3 inches of protection. How does that actually work to block the crack?
Why dont you need basalt to block the vertical cracks between the crates?
I cant get a good handle on why you dont need 2 crates high 2 crates deep and 3 crates wide with one removed for your head to get the protection.
Why dont you need basalt to block the vertical cracks between the crates?
How much do you think the protection varies by thickness? If you double it or half it how much does the protection multiply or divide?
What's the highest amount you think youve divided the attacks by and what was the weakness that stopped you from dividing it further?
Could I divide it more than that and how?
Do you think RNM and mental attacks will require more or less basalt then physical attacks. They seem to be able to intrude on my mind for reading or attacking to a
very unusual degree and none of my shielding tests have effected it at all for many years although I've done some which might be very strong ones.
WATER SHIELDING QUSTIONS
Do you think I need water with my basalt since it will cost me $1000 or $1500 to $2500? I think i've seen you say it blocks DC heavy pressure. Is that a single type of physical attack or an important aspect of electromagnetism?
What are the chances they could use DC heavy pressure in a mental?
Will all types of attacks be blocked with the combination of basalt and water if you have enough?
is that the magic combination for everyone or just for your physical attacks.
Whats the ratio in thickness of water to basalt for a full shield of water?
How much do you think the amount of time I spend inside it will affect how well it works. Like will spending only 2 hours in it be a lot inferior then being able to spend 24 hours or a week.
What do you think about how to build it?
Do you think it would be ok to use small nail gun nails in the frame since the mainstay bags that you have metal on them?
What are angles of attack and how does it make sense to set up my thicker protection
I need any kind of help you can give me with this project. Iv been working on this plan and this post for 6 to 12 days where the majority of my work everyday was on it. Then other weeks and months
on similar plans and research on making basalt shielding happen. So it takes me forever to do anything even though I labor all day during the time im not recovering from it. It doesnt seem like I'm capable of
taking in the information on what basalt shields and on the measurements and to figure out how to classify my attacks. I had to make a simple summary of the most simple aspects of using basalt and water
to understand it and that must have taken me a day or more of work to piece together different posts and to organize.
2023.06.03 00:06 arnott Missouri v. Biden: The judge asked the feds if they had ever read George Orwell’s 1984, pointing out the similarities between the case and the book
From tweet thread:
The federal government had a hard time convincing a judge last week that it hasn't been working with and coercing social media companies to censor free speech.
Some notable moments from the first hearing in our First Amendment case, Missouri v. Biden:
The judge asked the feds if they had ever read George Orwell’s 1984, pointing out the similarities between the case and the book.
The Court asked the feds if all the emails between them and social media companies were real because "it seems like there's a lot here."
The feds were forced to admit the tens of thousands of pages of evidence are genuine.
The judge questioned the feds on several hypotheticals, asking if the First Amendment applied.
He asked if an American citizen questioning the safety or efficacy of masks or a vaccine was protected under the First Amendment.
The feds' answer?
"It COULD be" but often won’t be.
It’s worth remembering that the Johnson & Johnson vaccine was limited by the CDC because of safety concerns. But the feds censored people for expressing concerns about safety.
The judge also asked Biden's lawyers if the First Amendment covered Americans' right to say that Biden is responsible for high gas prices and inflation.
Their answer?
It depends.
The judge also asked them if the First Amendment applied to Americans' right to say that the 2020 election was stolen.
Their answer?
It depends.
The judge also pointed out that it seemed to be only conservatives who are targeted for their speech, asking the feds if they could provide one example of a liberal who was censored due to "misinformation."
The feds provided only one example of a liberal being censored, and that person is a political opponent of Joe Biden.
submitted by arnott to WayOfTheBern [link] [comments]
The federal government had a hard time convincing a judge last week that it hasn't been working with and coercing social media companies to censor free speech.
Some notable moments from the first hearing in our First Amendment case, Missouri v. Biden:
The judge asked the feds if they had ever read George Orwell’s 1984, pointing out the similarities between the case and the book.
The Court asked the feds if all the emails between them and social media companies were real because "it seems like there's a lot here."
The feds were forced to admit the tens of thousands of pages of evidence are genuine.
The judge questioned the feds on several hypotheticals, asking if the First Amendment applied.
He asked if an American citizen questioning the safety or efficacy of masks or a vaccine was protected under the First Amendment.
The feds' answer?
"It COULD be" but often won’t be.
It’s worth remembering that the Johnson & Johnson vaccine was limited by the CDC because of safety concerns. But the feds censored people for expressing concerns about safety.
The judge also asked Biden's lawyers if the First Amendment covered Americans' right to say that Biden is responsible for high gas prices and inflation.
Their answer?
It depends.
The judge also asked them if the First Amendment applied to Americans' right to say that the 2020 election was stolen.
Their answer?
It depends.
The judge also pointed out that it seemed to be only conservatives who are targeted for their speech, asking the feds if they could provide one example of a liberal who was censored due to "misinformation."
The feds provided only one example of a liberal being censored, and that person is a political opponent of Joe Biden.
2023.06.03 00:00 FappidyDat [H] TF2 Keys & PayPal [W] Humble Bundle Games (Also Games From Past Bundles)
Notes:
I pay with the following:
TF2 & PayPal
IGS Rep Page:
https://www.reddit.com/IGSRep/comments/ggsaik/fappidydats_igs_rep_page/
SteamTrades Rep Page (1000+):
https://www.steamtrades.com/use76561198097671494
GameTrade Rep Page:
https://www.reddit.com/GameTradeRep/comments/ggrz1y/fappidydats_gametrade_rep_page/?
SGSFlair Rep Page:
https://www.reddit.com/sgsflaicomments/ggag04/flair_profile_ufappidydat/
submitted by FappidyDat to SteamGameSwap [link] [comments]
- I am EXTREMELY busy, but I check my messages and DMs at least ONCE per day. Please be patient and wait at least 24 hours for my response if I don't get back to you immediately.
- I buy only in Unrevealed Key Link Format or Plain Steam Keys. No gift links.
- For PayPal, I am in the US region and I only send via G&S. Please note there will be PayPal fees (including international/conversion and purchasing fees) to consider.
- All games that you sell to me should ideally be REGION-FREE. Please ensure the games are not region-locked/bound to a specific country.
- You must be willing to fill a spreadsheet with steam keys.
I pay with the following:
TF2 & PayPal
| I BUY HB Games | with TF2 | with PayPal | Currently Active Humble Bundle? |
|---|---|---|---|
| - Ratz Instagib - | 0.9 TF2 | $1.72 PP | - |
| 20XX | 0.4 TF2 | $0.88 PP | - |
| 5D Chess With Multiverse Time Travel | 2.6 TF2 | $5.19 PP | - |
| 60 Parsecs! | 0.8 TF2 | $1.5 PP | - |
| 7 Billion Humans | 1.5 TF2 | $2.91 PP | - |
| 7 Days to Die | 1.1 TF2 | $2.16 PP | - |
| A Game of Thrones: The Board Game - Digital Edition | 1.4 TF2 | $2.78 PP | - |
| A Hat in Time | 4.5 TF2 | $8.98 PP | - |
| A Juggler's Tale | 0.5 TF2 | $1.07 PP | - |
| A Plague Tale: Innocence | 1.9 TF2 | $3.81 PP | - |
| AMID EVIL | 0.6 TF2 | $1.18 PP | - |
| AO Tennis 2 | 0.7 TF2 | $1.3 PP | - |
| Absolver | 1.8 TF2 | $3.51 PP | - |
| Aeterna Noctis | 1.6 TF2 | $3.15 PP | - |
| Age of Empires Definitive Edition | 1.2 TF2 | $2.46 PP | - |
| Age of Empires III: Definitive Edition | 1.3 TF2 | $2.6 PP | - |
| Age of Wonders III Collection | 0.9 TF2 | $1.86 PP | - |
| Age of Wonders: Planetfall - Deluxe Edition | 0.4 TF2 | $0.88 PP | - |
| Age of Wonders: Planetfall | 0.8 TF2 | $1.6 PP | - |
| Airport CEO | 2.8 TF2 | $5.62 PP | - |
| Alan Wake Collector's Edition | 0.8 TF2 | $1.68 PP | - |
| Alien: Isolation | 1.8 TF2 | $3.52 PP | - |
| Aliens: Colonial Marines Collection | 1.2 TF2 | $2.45 PP | - |
| Aliens: Fireteam Elite | 1.0 TF2 | $1.99 PP | - |
| Amnesia: The Dark Descent | 1.1 TF2 | $2.25 PP | - |
| Among Us | 1.2 TF2 | $2.42 PP | - |
| Ancestors Legacy | 0.6 TF2 | $1.24 PP | - |
| Ancestors: The Humankind Odyssey | 2.1 TF2 | $4.07 PP | - |
| Aragami | 0.5 TF2 | $0.9 PP | - |
| Arizona Sunshine | 2.1 TF2 | $4.21 PP | - |
| Arma 3 Apex Edition | 1.6 TF2 | $3.24 PP | - |
| Arma 3 Contact Edition | 2.4 TF2 | $4.84 PP | - |
| Arma 3 Jets | 0.9 TF2 | $1.77 PP | - |
| Arma 3 Marksmen | 0.9 TF2 | $1.74 PP | - |
| Arma 3 | 1.9 TF2 | $3.78 PP | - |
| Assetto Corsa Competizione | 2.9 TF2 | $5.83 PP | - |
| Assetto Corsa Ultimate Edition | 5.0 TF2 | $9.93 PP | - |
| BATTLETECH - Mercenary Collection | 2.4 TF2 | $4.79 PP | - |
| BIOMUTANT | 1.6 TF2 | $3.12 PP | - |
| BPM: BULLETS PER MINUTE | 0.9 TF2 | $1.75 PP | - |
| BROFORCE | 1.1 TF2 | $2.17 PP | - |
| Baba Is You | 1.5 TF2 | $3.01 PP | - |
| Back 4 Blood | 3.0 TF2 | $5.96 PP | - |
| Bad North: Jotunn Edition | 0.9 TF2 | $1.77 PP | - |
| Baldur's Gate II: Enhanced Edition | 0.5 TF2 | $1.01 PP | - |
| Baldur's Gate: Enhanced Edition | 0.4 TF2 | $0.83 PP | - |
| Bang-On Balls: Chronicles | 2.6 TF2 | $5.14 PP | - |
| Banished | 2.2 TF2 | $4.34 PP | - |
| Barotrauma | 6.5 TF2 | $12.95 PP | - |
| Batman - The Telltale Series | 1.0 TF2 | $1.9 PP | - |
| Batman Arkham Collection | 1.2 TF2 | $2.44 PP | - |
| Batman: Arkham Knight | 0.4 TF2 | $0.85 PP | - |
| Batman: The Enemy Within - The Telltale Series | 1.1 TF2 | $2.18 PP | - |
| Batman™: Arkham Knight Premium Edition | 1.3 TF2 | $2.55 PP | - |
| Batman™: Arkham Origins Blackgate - Deluxe Edition | 0.4 TF2 | $0.85 PP | - |
| Batman™: Arkham Origins | 0.8 TF2 | $1.67 PP | - |
| Batman™: Arkham VR | 0.8 TF2 | $1.5 PP | - |
| Battle Chasers: Nightwar | 0.6 TF2 | $1.21 PP | - |
| Battlefleet Gothic: Armada II | 2.1 TF2 | $4.17 PP | - |
| Battlefleet Gothic: Armada | 0.9 TF2 | $1.72 PP | - |
| Battlezone Gold Edition | 2.2 TF2 | $4.3 PP | - |
| Bendy and the Dark Revival | Humble Choice (May 2023) | ||
| Besiege | 1.5 TF2 | $2.92 PP | - |
| Beyond Blue | 2.5 TF2 | $4.94 PP | - |
| Beyond Two Souls | 1.9 TF2 | $3.83 PP | - |
| BioShock Infinite | 0.9 TF2 | $1.78 PP | - |
| BioShock Remastered | 0.9 TF2 | $1.78 PP | - |
| Bioshock Infinite: Season Pass | 0.7 TF2 | $1.34 PP | - |
| Blade of Darkness | 1.2 TF2 | $2.47 PP | - |
| Blair Witch | 1.2 TF2 | $2.3 PP | - |
| Blasphemous | Must-Play Metroidvanias Bundle | ||
| Blood Bowl 2 - Legendary Edition | 0.7 TF2 | $1.48 PP | - |
| Blood: Fresh Supply | 0.4 TF2 | $0.78 PP | - |
| Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night | Must-Play Metroidvanias Bundle | ||
| Boomerang Fu | 0.6 TF2 | $1.2 PP | - |
| Borderlands 2 VR | 5.5 TF2 | $10.93 PP | - |
| Borderlands 3 Super Deluxe Edition | May Multiplayer Bundle | ||
| Borderlands 3 | 1.6 TF2 | $3.23 PP | - |
| Borderlands 3: Director's Cut | 1.3 TF2 | $2.51 PP | - |
| Borderlands: The Handsome Collection | 3.4 TF2 | $6.76 PP | - |
| Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel | 0.6 TF2 | $1.18 PP | - |
| Brutal Legend | 0.8 TF2 | $1.51 PP | - |
| Bus Simulator 18 | 2.1 TF2 | $4.18 PP | - |
| CHUCHEL Cherry Edition | 0.5 TF2 | $0.97 PP | - |
| Call of Cthulhu | 1.1 TF2 | $2.25 PP | - |
| Call of Juarez: Gunslinger | 0.5 TF2 | $0.96 PP | - |
| Call to Arms - Gates of Hell: Ostfront | 9.3 TF2 | $18.38 PP | - |
| Car Mechanic Simulator 2018 | 0.7 TF2 | $1.36 PP | - |
| Carcassonne - Tiles & Tactics | 0.6 TF2 | $1.22 PP | - |
| Celeste | 1.8 TF2 | $3.6 PP | - |
| Chess Ultra | 0.6 TF2 | $1.25 PP | - |
| Children of Morta | 0.7 TF2 | $1.43 PP | - |
| Chivalry 2 | 3.8 TF2 | $7.45 PP | - |
| Chivalry: Medieval Warfare | 0.7 TF2 | $1.37 PP | - |
| Cities: Skylines Deluxe Edition | 1.6 TF2 | $3.18 PP | - |
| Cities: Skylines | 1.4 TF2 | $2.73 PP | - |
| Clone Drone in the Danger Zone | 4.2 TF2 | $8.32 PP | - |
| Cloudpunk | 1.0 TF2 | $2.02 PP | - |
| Code Vein | 1.7 TF2 | $3.3 PP | - |
| Coffee Talk | 2.5 TF2 | $4.98 PP | - |
| Company of Heroes 2 - The Western Front Armies | 1.0 TF2 | $1.94 PP | - |
| Company of Heroes 2 | 0.5 TF2 | $1.0 PP | - |
| Company of Heroes | 1.9 TF2 | $3.79 PP | - |
| Conan Exiles | 1.6 TF2 | $3.26 PP | - |
| Construction Simulator 2015 | 1.3 TF2 | $2.48 PP | - |
| Contagion | 0.6 TF2 | $1.11 PP | - |
| Control Ultimate Edition | 2.0 TF2 | $3.93 PP | - |
| Crash Bandicoot™ N. Sane Trilogy | 9.6 TF2 | $19.06 PP | - |
| Creed: Rise to Glory™ | 2.3 TF2 | $4.47 PP | - |
| Crusader Kings II: Imperial Collection | 10.0 TF2 | $19.73 PP | - |
| Crusader Kings III | 5.9 TF2 | $11.73 PP | - |
| CryoFall | 0.5 TF2 | $0.92 PP | - |
| Cultist Simulator Anthology Edition | 1.4 TF2 | $2.79 PP | - |
| Cultist Simulator | 0.6 TF2 | $1.22 PP | - |
| DEATH STRANDING DIRECTOR'S CUT | 2.6 TF2 | $5.21 PP | - |
| DEATHLOOP | 2.8 TF2 | $5.47 PP | - |
| DIRT 5 | 4.3 TF2 | $8.44 PP | - |
| DMC - Devil May Cry | 1.0 TF2 | $1.93 PP | - |
| DRAGON BALL FIGHTERZ - Ultimate Edition | 10.0 TF2 | $19.74 PP | - |
| DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE 2 | 1.9 TF2 | $3.81 PP | - |
| DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE | 0.6 TF2 | $1.18 PP | - |
| DRAGONBALL XENOVERSE Bundle Edition | 1.1 TF2 | $2.16 PP | - |
| DRIFT21 | 0.6 TF2 | $1.12 PP | - |
| Dark Deity | 0.4 TF2 | $0.85 PP | - |
| Dark Souls II: Scholar of the First Sin | 8.7 TF2 | $17.31 PP | - |
| Dark Souls III | 12.6 TF2 | $24.91 PP | - |
| Darkest Dungeon | 0.7 TF2 | $1.37 PP | - |
| Darksiders Genesis | 1.3 TF2 | $2.67 PP | - |
| Darksiders II Deathinitive Edition | 1.1 TF2 | $2.17 PP | - |
| Darksiders III | 0.6 TF2 | $1.26 PP | - |
| Darkwood | 0.6 TF2 | $1.16 PP | - |
| Day of the Tentacle Remastered | 0.4 TF2 | $0.88 PP | - |
| DayZ | 7.6 TF2 | $15.03 PP | - |
| Daymare: 1998 | 0.4 TF2 | $0.79 PP | - |
| Dead Estate | 1.0 TF2 | $1.99 PP | - |
| Dead Island - Definitive Edition | 0.8 TF2 | $1.66 PP | - |
| Dead Island Definitive Collection | 1.7 TF2 | $3.3 PP | - |
| Dead Rising 2: Off the Record | 1.2 TF2 | $2.42 PP | - |
| Dead Rising 3 Apocalypse Edition | 1.9 TF2 | $3.7 PP | - |
| Dead Rising 4 Frank’s Big Package | 2.5 TF2 | $4.96 PP | - |
| Dead Rising 4 | 0.9 TF2 | $1.73 PP | - |
| Dead Rising | 1.0 TF2 | $1.96 PP | - |
| Death Road to Canada | 2.4 TF2 | $4.84 PP | - |
| Death's Gambit | 0.6 TF2 | $1.15 PP | - |
| Deep Rock Galactic | 3.3 TF2 | $6.63 PP | - |
| Descenders | 0.6 TF2 | $1.15 PP | - |
| Desperados III | 1.0 TF2 | $1.93 PP | - |
| Destroy All Humans | 0.7 TF2 | $1.41 PP | - |
| Deus Ex: Human Revolution - Director's Cut | 1.1 TF2 | $2.25 PP | - |
| Deus Ex: Mankind Divided | 1.1 TF2 | $2.16 PP | - |
| Devil May Cry HD Collection | 1.8 TF2 | $3.5 PP | - |
| Devil May Cry® 4 Special Edition | 1.6 TF2 | $3.13 PP | - |
| DiRT Rally 2.0 | 5.1 TF2 | $10.11 PP | - |
| Dinosaur Fossil Hunter | 0.5 TF2 | $0.9 PP | - |
| Distant Worlds: Universe | 0.7 TF2 | $1.29 PP | - |
| Doom Eternal | 2.5 TF2 | $4.94 PP | - |
| Door Kickers | 1.9 TF2 | $3.84 PP | - |
| Dorfromantik | 2.0 TF2 | $3.93 PP | - |
| Dragons Dogma - Dark Arisen | 0.8 TF2 | $1.57 PP | - |
| Drake Hollow | 0.5 TF2 | $0.91 PP | - |
| Drone Swarm | 0.4 TF2 | $0.81 PP | - |
| Dungeon Defenders | 2.8 TF2 | $5.47 PP | - |
| Dungeon Defenders: Awakened | 2.8 TF2 | $5.59 PP | - |
| Dungreed | 0.9 TF2 | $1.81 PP | - |
| Dusk | 2.0 TF2 | $3.91 PP | - |
| EARTH DEFENSE FORCE 4.1 The Shadow of New Despair | 2.2 TF2 | $4.28 PP | - |
| ELEX | 1.1 TF2 | $2.18 PP | - |
| EVERSPACE™ | 1.6 TF2 | $3.16 PP | - |
| Elite: Dangerous | 1.3 TF2 | $2.67 PP | - |
| Empire of Sin | 1.3 TF2 | $2.55 PP | - |
| Endzone - A World Apart | 0.5 TF2 | $1.04 PP | - |
| Euro Truck Simulator 2 | 1.1 TF2 | $2.19 PP | - |
| Exanima | 2.6 TF2 | $5.24 PP | - |
| FTL: Faster Than Light | 1.0 TF2 | $1.92 PP | - |
| Fable Anniversary | 3.7 TF2 | $7.32 PP | - |
| Fallout 76 | 2.1 TF2 | $4.22 PP | - |
| Fantasy General II | 0.6 TF2 | $1.25 PP | - |
| Farming Simulator 17 | 0.6 TF2 | $1.13 PP | - |
| Firefighting Simulator - The Squad | 3.8 TF2 | $7.47 PP | - |
| First Class Trouble | 0.6 TF2 | $1.12 PP | - |
| For The King | 1.0 TF2 | $1.92 PP | - |
| Forager | 1.3 TF2 | $2.6 PP | - |
| Forts | 2.3 TF2 | $4.52 PP | - |
| Friday the 13th: The Game | 3.0 TF2 | $5.86 PP | - |
| Frostpunk | 1.0 TF2 | $2.07 PP | - |
| Full Metal Furies | 0.6 TF2 | $1.15 PP | - |
| Furi | 0.8 TF2 | $1.62 PP | - |
| GRID - Ultimate | 2.0 TF2 | $3.97 PP | - |
| GRID | 0.9 TF2 | $1.81 PP | - |
| GRIS | 0.5 TF2 | $0.92 PP | - |
| Gang Beasts | 3.0 TF2 | $5.89 PP | - |
| Garden Paws | 1.0 TF2 | $2.05 PP | - |
| Gas Station Simulator | 1.9 TF2 | $3.68 PP | - |
| Gears 5 | 11.7 TF2 | $23.1 PP | - |
| Gears Tactics | 4.5 TF2 | $8.93 PP | - |
| Generation Zero® | May Multiplayer Bundle | ||
| Goat Simulator | 0.4 TF2 | $0.88 PP | - |
| Godlike Burger | 1.1 TF2 | $2.1 PP | - |
| Golf With Your Friends | 0.9 TF2 | $1.69 PP | - |
| Gordian Quest | 1.8 TF2 | $3.58 PP | - |
| Gotham Knights | 5.5 TF2 | $10.83 PP | - |
| GreedFall | 0.8 TF2 | $1.54 PP | - |
| Grim Dawn | 5.2 TF2 | $10.28 PP | - |
| Grim Fandango Remastered | 0.6 TF2 | $1.09 PP | - |
| Guacamelee! 2 | 0.6 TF2 | $1.19 PP | - |
| HITMAN™2 Gold Edition | 3.1 TF2 | $6.16 PP | - |
| HIVESWAP: Act 2 | 2.1 TF2 | $4.18 PP | - |
| HOT WHEELS UNLEASHED™ | 1.8 TF2 | $3.66 PP | - |
| HROT | 1.9 TF2 | $3.7 PP | - |
| Haiku, the Robot | Must-Play Metroidvanias Bundle | ||
| Hard Bullet | 1.2 TF2 | $2.38 PP | - |
| Hearts of Iron IV: Battle for the Bosporus | 1.8 TF2 | $3.53 PP | - |
| Hearts of Iron IV: Cadet Edition | 2.7 TF2 | $5.3 PP | - |
| Hearts of Iron IV: Death or Dishonor | 0.9 TF2 | $1.74 PP | - |
| Hearts of Iron IV: Waking the Tiger | 1.9 TF2 | $3.68 PP | - |
| Heave Ho | 0.6 TF2 | $1.1 PP | - |
| Heavy Rain | 2.1 TF2 | $4.15 PP | - |
| Hell Let Loose | 5.2 TF2 | $10.32 PP | - |
| Hellblade: Senua's Sacrifice | 1.1 TF2 | $2.26 PP | - |
| Hello, Neighbor! | 0.5 TF2 | $0.91 PP | - |
| Hellpoint | 0.4 TF2 | $0.75 PP | - |
| Hero's Hour | 0.5 TF2 | $0.92 PP | - |
| Heroes of Hammerwatch | 0.6 TF2 | $1.13 PP | - |
| Hitman Absolution | 0.4 TF2 | $0.79 PP | - |
| Hitman Game of the Year Edition | 1.3 TF2 | $2.61 PP | - |
| Hollow Knight | Must-Play Metroidvanias Bundle | ||
| Homefront: The Revolution | 0.8 TF2 | $1.68 PP | - |
| Homeworld: Deserts of Kharak | 0.4 TF2 | $0.77 PP | - |
| Horizon Chase Turbo | 0.4 TF2 | $0.72 PP | - |
| Hotline Miami 2: Wrong Number Digital Special Edition | 0.7 TF2 | $1.46 PP | - |
| Hotline Miami 2: Wrong Number | 0.6 TF2 | $1.15 PP | - |
| Hotline Miami | 0.8 TF2 | $1.56 PP | - |
| House Flipper VR | 0.9 TF2 | $1.73 PP | - |
| House Flipper | 2.8 TF2 | $5.5 PP | - |
| Human: Fall Flat | 0.9 TF2 | $1.88 PP | - |
| HuniePop | 0.4 TF2 | $0.89 PP | - |
| Huntdown | 1.3 TF2 | $2.6 PP | - |
| Hurtworld | 2.1 TF2 | $4.07 PP | - |
| Hyper Light Drifter | 1.6 TF2 | $3.11 PP | - |
| Hypnospace Outlaw | 0.8 TF2 | $1.55 PP | - |
| I Expect You To Die | 1.4 TF2 | $2.68 PP | - |
| I-NFECTED | 6.3 TF2 | $12.5 PP | - |
| INSURGENCY | 1.6 TF2 | $3.16 PP | - |
| Icewind Dale: Enhanced Edition | 0.4 TF2 | $0.73 PP | - |
| Imperator: Rome Deluxe Edition | 1.1 TF2 | $2.09 PP | - |
| Imperator: Rome | 0.8 TF2 | $1.6 PP | - |
| Injustice 2 Legendary Edition | 0.9 TF2 | $1.76 PP | - |
| Injustice 2 | 0.7 TF2 | $1.46 PP | - |
| Injustice: Gods Among Us - Ultimate Edition | 0.7 TF2 | $1.32 PP | - |
| Into the Breach | 1.5 TF2 | $2.93 PP | - |
| Into the Radius VR | 2.9 TF2 | $5.84 PP | - |
| Ion Fury | 1.6 TF2 | $3.12 PP | - |
| Iron Harvest | 1.4 TF2 | $2.74 PP | - |
| Jalopy | 0.9 TF2 | $1.87 PP | - |
| Job Simulator | 6.6 TF2 | $13.01 PP | - |
| Jurassic World Evolution 2 | 2.4 TF2 | $4.81 PP | - |
| Jurassic World Evolution | 0.7 TF2 | $1.43 PP | - |
| Just Cause 2 | 0.5 TF2 | $1.06 PP | - |
| Just Cause 3 XXL Edition | 1.3 TF2 | $2.63 PP | - |
| Just Cause 4: Complete Edition | 2.0 TF2 | $3.97 PP | - |
| KartKraft | 3.2 TF2 | $6.3 PP | - |
| Katamari Damacy REROLL | 1.1 TF2 | $2.24 PP | - |
| Katana ZERO | 1.1 TF2 | $2.23 PP | - |
| Keep Talking and Nobody Explodes | 2.7 TF2 | $5.42 PP | - |
| Kerbal Space Program | 0.8 TF2 | $1.6 PP | - |
| Killer Instinct | 8.8 TF2 | $17.49 PP | - |
| Killing Floor 2 | 0.6 TF2 | $1.2 PP | - |
| Killing Floor | 0.9 TF2 | $1.69 PP | - |
| Kingdom Come: Deliverance | 1.5 TF2 | $2.93 PP | - |
| Kingdom: Two Crowns | 1.0 TF2 | $1.95 PP | - |
| LEGO Batman 3: Beyond Gotham Premium Edition | 0.5 TF2 | $0.9 PP | - |
| LEGO Batman Trilogy | 1.6 TF2 | $3.07 PP | - |
| LEGO Harry Potter: Years 1-4 | 0.4 TF2 | $0.79 PP | - |
| LEGO Harry Potter: Years 5-7 | 0.6 TF2 | $1.11 PP | - |
| LEGO Lord of the Rings | 0.4 TF2 | $0.83 PP | - |
| LEGO Star Wars III: The Clone Wars | 0.5 TF2 | $1.05 PP | - |
| LEGO Star Wars: The Complete Saga | 0.6 TF2 | $1.13 PP | - |
| LEGO® City Undercover | 0.7 TF2 | $1.34 PP | - |
| LEGO® DC Super-Villains Deluxe Edition | 1.7 TF2 | $3.28 PP | - |
| LEGO® DC Super-Villains | 0.4 TF2 | $0.78 PP | - |
| LEGO® Jurassic World™ | 0.4 TF2 | $0.71 PP | - |
| LEGO® MARVEL's Avengers | 0.4 TF2 | $0.78 PP | - |
| LEGO® Marvel Super Heroes 2 Deluxe Edition | 0.9 TF2 | $1.83 PP | - |
| LEGO® Marvel Super Heroes 2 | 0.7 TF2 | $1.34 PP | - |
| LEGO® Star Wars™: The Force Awakens - Deluxe Edition | 1.1 TF2 | $2.25 PP | - |
| LEGO® Star Wars™: The Force Awakens | 0.6 TF2 | $1.15 PP | - |
| LEGO® Worlds | 1.1 TF2 | $2.12 PP | - |
| LIMBO | 0.4 TF2 | $0.71 PP | - |
| Labyrinth City: Pierre the Maze Detective | 0.7 TF2 | $1.47 PP | - |
| Labyrinthine | 1.9 TF2 | $3.76 PP | - |
| Lake | 0.8 TF2 | $1.51 PP | - |
| Last Oasis | 1.6 TF2 | $3.11 PP | - |
| Layers of Fear 2 | 6.3 TF2 | $12.52 PP | - |
| Layers of Fear | 0.6 TF2 | $1.12 PP | - |
| Legion TD 2 | 1.7 TF2 | $3.33 PP | - |
| Len's Island | 4.2 TF2 | $8.26 PP | - |
| Lethal League Blaze | 1.5 TF2 | $3.06 PP | - |
| Lethal League | 0.8 TF2 | $1.58 PP | - |
| Library Of Ruina | 3.2 TF2 | $6.42 PP | - |
| Life is Feudal: Your Own | 0.7 TF2 | $1.39 PP | - |
| Life is Strange 2 Complete Season | 0.7 TF2 | $1.33 PP | - |
| Life is Strange Complete Season (Episodes 1-5) | 4.5 TF2 | $8.95 PP | - |
| Little Misfortune | 2.3 TF2 | $4.47 PP | - |
| Little Nightmares Complete Edition | 1.6 TF2 | $3.22 PP | - |
| Little Nightmares | 1.0 TF2 | $2.06 PP | - |
| Lobotomy Corporation Monster Management Simulation | 5.0 TF2 | $9.99 PP | - |
| Loot River | 3.3 TF2 | $6.47 PP | - |
| Lost Ember | 1.4 TF2 | $2.76 PP | - |
| Luck be a Landlord | Luck of the Draw: Roguelike Deckbuilders Bundle | ||
| METAL GEAR SOLID V: The Definitive Experience | 1.5 TF2 | $2.89 PP | - |
| MONSTER HUNTER RISE | 4.1 TF2 | $8.09 PP | - |
| MORTAL KOMBAT 11 | 1.8 TF2 | $3.53 PP | - |
| MX vs ATV Reflex | 0.4 TF2 | $0.71 PP | - |
| Mad Max | 1.2 TF2 | $2.32 PP | - |
| Mafia II: Definitive Edition | 3.6 TF2 | $7.11 PP | - |
| Mafia III: Definitive Edition | 2.1 TF2 | $4.21 PP | - |
| Mafia: Definitive Edition | 2.2 TF2 | $4.36 PP | - |
| Magicka 2 - Deluxe Edition | 0.9 TF2 | $1.69 PP | - |
| Magicka 2 | 0.6 TF2 | $1.18 PP | - |
| Maneater | 0.8 TF2 | $1.63 PP | - |
| Manhunt | 1.1 TF2 | $2.18 PP | - |
| Mars Horizon | 0.8 TF2 | $1.53 PP | - |
| Mass Effect™ Legendary Edition | 7.8 TF2 | $15.36 PP | - |
| Max Payne 2: The Fall of Max Payne | 0.6 TF2 | $1.22 PP | - |
| Max Payne | 1.0 TF2 | $2.06 PP | - |
| MechWarrior 5: Mercenaries | 2.5 TF2 | $5.02 PP | - |
| Medal of Honor | 2.1 TF2 | $4.24 PP | - |
| Mega Man Legacy Collection | 0.5 TF2 | $0.9 PP | - |
| Men of War: Assault Squad 2 - Deluxe Edition | 0.9 TF2 | $1.69 PP | - |
| Men of War: Assault Squad 2 War Chest Edition | 0.8 TF2 | $1.6 PP | - |
| Men of War: Assault Squad 2 | 0.8 TF2 | $1.6 PP | - |
| Metro 2033 Redux | 0.5 TF2 | $1.05 PP | - |
| Metro Exodus | 1.4 TF2 | $2.79 PP | - |
| Metro Redux Bundle | 1.1 TF2 | $2.17 PP | - |
| Metro: Last Light Redux | 1.1 TF2 | $2.26 PP | - |
| Middle-earth: Shadow of Mordor Game of the Year Edition | 0.9 TF2 | $1.71 PP | - |
| Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™ | 0.9 TF2 | $1.8 PP | - |
| Middleearth Shadow of War Definitive Edition | 1.2 TF2 | $2.37 PP | - |
| Midnight Ghost Hunt | May Multiplayer Bundle | ||
| Mini Ninjas | 0.5 TF2 | $1.05 PP | - |
| Mirror's Edge | 2.2 TF2 | $4.36 PP | - |
| Miscreated | 1.4 TF2 | $2.87 PP | - |
| Monster Hunter: World | 3.5 TF2 | $6.89 PP | - |
| Monster Sanctuary | 0.6 TF2 | $1.26 PP | - |
| Monster Train | 0.5 TF2 | $0.92 PP | - |
| Moonlighter | 0.4 TF2 | $0.85 PP | - |
| Moons of Madness | 1.8 TF2 | $3.48 PP | - |
| Mordhau | 1.7 TF2 | $3.32 PP | - |
| Mortal Shell | 1.4 TF2 | $2.77 PP | - |
| Motorcycle Mechanic Simulator 2021 | 0.8 TF2 | $1.58 PP | - |
| Motorsport Manager | 1.3 TF2 | $2.55 PP | - |
| Move or Die | 0.7 TF2 | $1.46 PP | - |
| Moving Out | 1.4 TF2 | $2.82 PP | - |
| Mutant Year Zero: Road to Eden - Deluxe Edition | 1.5 TF2 | $3.01 PP | - |
| My Friend Pedro | 1.0 TF2 | $1.91 PP | - |
| My Time At Portia | 0.7 TF2 | $1.43 PP | - |
| NARUTO SHIPPUDEN: Ultimate Ninja STORM 4 Road to Boruto | 2.6 TF2 | $5.23 PP | - |
| NARUTO SHIPPUDEN: Ultimate Ninja STORM Revolution | 0.8 TF2 | $1.5 PP | - |
| NASCAR Heat 5 - Ultimate Edition | 0.6 TF2 | $1.1 PP | - |
| NBA 2K13 | 4.8 TF2 | $9.52 PP | - |
| Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm 4 | 1.6 TF2 | $3.14 PP | - |
| Naruto to Boruto Shinobi Striker - Deluxe Edition | 1.6 TF2 | $3.13 PP | - |
| Naruto to Boruto Shinobi Striker | 0.4 TF2 | $0.83 PP | - |
| Necromunda: Hired Gun | 0.7 TF2 | $1.45 PP | - |
| Neon Abyss | 0.5 TF2 | $1.01 PP | - |
| Neverwinter Nights: Complete Adventures | 3.7 TF2 | $7.33 PP | - |
| Nine Parchments | 2.2 TF2 | $4.27 PP | - |
| No Time to Relax | 2.9 TF2 | $5.75 PP | - |
| Northgard | May Multiplayer Bundle | ||
| Not For Broadcast | 0.7 TF2 | $1.36 PP | - |
| ONE PIECE BURNING BLOOD GOLD EDITION | 2.0 TF2 | $3.91 PP | - |
| ONE PIECE BURNING BLOOD | 0.7 TF2 | $1.46 PP | - |
| ONE PIECE PIRATE WARRIORS 3 Gold Edition | 1.2 TF2 | $2.38 PP | - |
| Observer | 0.4 TF2 | $0.74 PP | - |
| Oddworld: New 'n' Tasty | 0.4 TF2 | $0.72 PP | - |
| One Step From Eden | 0.5 TF2 | $1.03 PP | - |
| Operation: Tango | Humble Choice (May 2023) | ||
| Opus Magnum | 1.1 TF2 | $2.13 PP | - |
| Orcs Must Die! 3 | 1.9 TF2 | $3.69 PP | - |
| Outlast 2 | 0.6 TF2 | $1.17 PP | - |
| Outlast | 0.5 TF2 | $1.06 PP | - |
| Outward | 1.5 TF2 | $2.94 PP | - |
| Overcooked | 1.0 TF2 | $2.02 PP | - |
| Overcooked! 2 | 1.3 TF2 | $2.59 PP | - |
| Overgrowth | 0.8 TF2 | $1.53 PP | - |
| Overlord II | 0.4 TF2 | $0.85 PP | - |
| Owlboy | 1.0 TF2 | $2.04 PP | - |
| PAYDAY 2 | 0.4 TF2 | $0.82 PP | - |
| PC Building Simulator | 0.7 TF2 | $1.32 PP | - |
| PGA TOUR 2K21 | 0.6 TF2 | $1.24 PP | - |
| Paint the Town Red | 2.4 TF2 | $4.73 PP | - |
| Parkitect | 5.5 TF2 | $10.98 PP | - |
| Party Hard 2 | 0.4 TF2 | $0.71 PP | - |
| Pathfinder: Kingmaker - Enhanced Plus Edition | 0.6 TF2 | $1.25 PP | - |
| Pathologic 2 | 0.5 TF2 | $1.04 PP | - |
| Pathologic Classic HD | 0.4 TF2 | $0.85 PP | - |
| Per Aspera | 0.7 TF2 | $1.39 PP | - |
| Phantom Doctrine | 0.4 TF2 | $0.85 PP | - |
| Pillars of Eternity Definitive Edition | 1.3 TF2 | $2.66 PP | - |
| Pillars of Eternity II: Deadfire | 1.0 TF2 | $2.07 PP | - |
| Pistol Whip | 6.2 TF2 | $12.33 PP | - |
| Plague Inc: Evolved | 1.6 TF2 | $3.23 PP | - |
| Planescape: Torment: Enhanced Edition | 0.4 TF2 | $0.78 PP | - |
| Planet Coaster | 1.8 TF2 | $3.55 PP | - |
| Planet Zoo | 2.0 TF2 | $3.93 PP | - |
| Planetary Annihilation: TITANS | 6.0 TF2 | $11.91 PP | - |
| Portal Knights | 1.3 TF2 | $2.62 PP | - |
| Power Rangers: Battle for the Grid | 2.8 TF2 | $5.48 PP | - |
| PowerBeatsVR | 1.0 TF2 | $1.99 PP | - |
| PowerSlave Exhumed | 1.4 TF2 | $2.79 PP | - |
| Praey for the Gods | 0.6 TF2 | $1.16 PP | - |
| Prehistoric Kingdom | 1.5 TF2 | $2.93 PP | - |
| Prison Architect | 0.4 TF2 | $0.76 PP | - |
| Pro Cycling Manager 2019 | 1.3 TF2 | $2.61 PP | - |
| Project Hospital | 2.4 TF2 | $4.82 PP | - |
| Project Wingman | 2.6 TF2 | $5.21 PP | - |
| Project Winter | 1.1 TF2 | $2.17 PP | - |
| Propnight | 0.7 TF2 | $1.32 PP | - |
| Pumpkin Jack | 0.4 TF2 | $0.84 PP | - |
| Quantum Break | 2.0 TF2 | $4.0 PP | - |
| RESIDENT EVIL 3 | 2.3 TF2 | $4.49 PP | - |
| RUGBY 20 | 1.3 TF2 | $2.58 PP | - |
| RWBY: Grimm Eclipse | 3.3 TF2 | $6.62 PP | - |
| Ragnaröck | 3.5 TF2 | $6.93 PP | - |
| Rain World | Must-Play Metroidvanias Bundle | ||
| Raw Data | 1.1 TF2 | $2.17 PP | - |
| Re:Legend | 1.1 TF2 | $2.13 PP | - |
| Red Faction Guerrilla Re-Mars-tered | 0.5 TF2 | $0.95 PP | - |
| Red Matter | 4.5 TF2 | $8.95 PP | - |
| Resident Evil / biohazard HD REMASTER | 1.1 TF2 | $2.23 PP | - |
| Resident Evil 0 / biohazard 0 HD Remaster | 1.2 TF2 | $2.35 PP | - |
| Resident Evil 5 GOLD Edition | 1.8 TF2 | $3.53 PP | - |
| Resident Evil 5 | 1.1 TF2 | $2.16 PP | - |
| Resident Evil 6 | 1.4 TF2 | $2.81 PP | - |
| Resident Evil: Revelations 2 Deluxe Edition | 2.5 TF2 | $4.88 PP | - |
| Resident Evil: Revelations | 0.8 TF2 | $1.5 PP | - |
| Retro Machina | 0.5 TF2 | $1.02 PP | - |
| Risen 2: Dark Waters Gold Edition | 1.5 TF2 | $2.88 PP | - |
| Risen 3 - Complete Edition | 1.0 TF2 | $2.07 PP | - |
| Risen | 0.9 TF2 | $1.82 PP | - |
| Rising Storm 2: Vietnam | 0.7 TF2 | $1.34 PP | - |
| River City Girls | 1.4 TF2 | $2.87 PP | - |
| Roboquest | 0.5 TF2 | $1.06 PP | - |
| RollerCoaster Tycoon Deluxe | 1.1 TF2 | $2.09 PP | - |
| Rollercoaster Tycoon 2: Triple Thrill Pack | 1.7 TF2 | $3.28 PP | - |
| Rubber Bandits | 0.8 TF2 | $1.52 PP | - |
| Ryse: Son of Rome | 1.7 TF2 | $3.38 PP | - |
| SCP: Pandemic | 2.2 TF2 | $4.28 PP | - |
| SCUM | 3.0 TF2 | $5.96 PP | - |
| SOMA | 2.4 TF2 | $4.8 PP | - |
| SONG OF HORROR Complete Edition | 0.7 TF2 | $1.42 PP | - |
| STAR WARS® THE FORCE UNLEASHED II | 0.8 TF2 | $1.62 PP | - |
| STAR WARS™: Squadrons | 1.6 TF2 | $3.23 PP | - |
| SUPERHOT VR | 2.3 TF2 | $4.51 PP | - |
| SUPERHOT | 0.8 TF2 | $1.59 PP | - |
| SUPERHOT: MIND CONTROL DELETE | 0.5 TF2 | $1.02 PP | - |
| Saint's Row The Third Remastered | 2.3 TF2 | $4.5 PP | - |
| Saints Row 2 | 0.6 TF2 | $1.16 PP | - |
| Saints Row IV Game of the Century Edition | 1.1 TF2 | $2.25 PP | - |
| Saints Row IV | 1.0 TF2 | $2.05 PP | - |
| Saints Row the Third - The Full Package | 1.0 TF2 | $1.93 PP | - |
| Saints Row: The Third | 0.6 TF2 | $1.27 PP | - |
| Salt and Sanctuary | 1.1 TF2 | $2.15 PP | - |
| Sanctum 2 | 0.5 TF2 | $1.06 PP | - |
| Satisfactory | 6.6 TF2 | $13.01 PP | - |
| Second Extinction | 2.1 TF2 | $4.11 PP | - |
| Secret Neighbor | 0.9 TF2 | $1.85 PP | - |
| Serious Sam 2 | 0.8 TF2 | $1.58 PP | - |
| Serious Sam 3: BFE | 1.0 TF2 | $1.99 PP | - |
| Serious Sam 4 | 4.0 TF2 | $7.94 PP | - |
| Serious Sam: Siberian Mayhem | 2.3 TF2 | $4.51 PP | - |
| Shadow Man Remastered | 1.0 TF2 | $2.0 PP | - |
| Shadow Tactics: Blades of the Shogun | 0.4 TF2 | $0.85 PP | - |
| Shadow Warrior 2 | 0.9 TF2 | $1.76 PP | - |
| Shadow of the Tomb Raider | 3.2 TF2 | $6.37 PP | - |
| Shenmue 3 | 1.3 TF2 | $2.58 PP | - |
| Shenmue I & II | 1.3 TF2 | $2.58 PP | - |
| Shining Resonance Refrain | 0.5 TF2 | $0.96 PP | - |
| Sid Meier's Civilization VI : Platinum Edition | 3.0 TF2 | $6.03 PP | - |
| Sid Meier's Civilization VI | 0.7 TF2 | $1.47 PP | - |
| Sid Meier's Civilization® V: The Complete Edition | 1.9 TF2 | $3.76 PP | - |
| Sid Meiers Civilization IV: The Complete Edition | 0.8 TF2 | $1.6 PP | - |
| Siege of Centauri | 0.6 TF2 | $1.16 PP | - |
| SimCasino | 1.3 TF2 | $2.56 PP | - |
| SimplePlanes | 1.9 TF2 | $3.78 PP | - |
| Skullgirls 2nd Encore | 1.2 TF2 | $2.47 PP | - |
| Slap City | 1.1 TF2 | $2.25 PP | - |
| Slay the Spire | 3.6 TF2 | $7.17 PP | - |
| Sleeping Dogs: Definitive Edition | 1.0 TF2 | $1.93 PP | - |
| Slime Rancher | 1.7 TF2 | $3.32 PP | - |
| Sniper Elite 3 | 1.1 TF2 | $2.14 PP | - |
| Sniper Elite 4 | 1.3 TF2 | $2.53 PP | - |
| Sniper Elite V2 Remastered | 1.3 TF2 | $2.5 PP | - |
| Sniper Elite V2 | 1.0 TF2 | $2.05 PP | - |
| Sniper Ghost Warrior 3 | 0.8 TF2 | $1.58 PP | - |
| Sniper Ghost Warrior Contracts | 0.9 TF2 | $1.88 PP | - |
| Sonic Adventure DX | 0.5 TF2 | $0.92 PP | - |
| Sonic Adventure 2 | 0.9 TF2 | $1.86 PP | - |
| Sonic Mania | 1.3 TF2 | $2.6 PP | - |
| Soul Calibur VI | 1.6 TF2 | $3.24 PP | - |
| Source of Madness | 0.6 TF2 | $1.13 PP | - |
| Space Engineers | 2.7 TF2 | $5.3 PP | - |
| Space Haven | 0.6 TF2 | $1.15 PP | - |
| Spec Ops: The Line | 0.9 TF2 | $1.81 PP | - |
| SpeedRunners | 0.5 TF2 | $1.04 PP | - |
| Spellcaster University | 0.5 TF2 | $0.9 PP | - |
| Spelunky | 1.1 TF2 | $2.23 PP | - |
| Spirit Of The Island | 1.3 TF2 | $2.59 PP | - |
| Spiritfarer | Humble Choice (May 2023) | ||
| SpongeBob SquarePants: Battle for Bikini Bottom - Rehydrated | 1.3 TF2 | $2.51 PP | - |
| Spyro™ Reignited Trilogy | 4.9 TF2 | $9.65 PP | - |
| Star Renegades | 3.0 TF2 | $5.94 PP | - |
| Star Trek: Bridge Crew | 4.4 TF2 | $8.62 PP | - |
| Star Wars Republic Commando™ | 0.4 TF2 | $0.71 PP | - |
| Star Wars: Battlefront 2 (Classic, 2005) | 1.4 TF2 | $2.7 PP | - |
| Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic | 0.4 TF2 | $0.85 PP | - |
| Star Wars® Empire at War™: Gold Pack | 1.2 TF2 | $2.39 PP | - |
| Starbound | 1.1 TF2 | $2.24 PP | - |
| Starpoint Gemini Warlords | 1.8 TF2 | $3.48 PP | - |
| State of Decay 2: Juggernaut Edition | 3.0 TF2 | $5.92 PP | - |
| Staxel | 0.6 TF2 | $1.15 PP | - |
| SteamWorld Quest: Hand of Gilgamech | 0.9 TF2 | $1.83 PP | - |
| Steel Division: Normandy 44 | 1.5 TF2 | $2.91 PP | - |
| Stellaris Galaxy Edition | 1.8 TF2 | $3.56 PP | - |
| Stellaris: Lithoids Species Pack | 0.8 TF2 | $1.49 PP | - |
| Stick Fight: The Game | 0.6 TF2 | $1.1 PP | - |
| Strategic Command WWII: World at War | 2.2 TF2 | $4.26 PP | - |
| Street Fighter 30th Anniversary Collection | 1.5 TF2 | $2.94 PP | - |
| Streets of Rogue | 0.6 TF2 | $1.24 PP | - |
| Stronghold 2: Steam Edition | 2.0 TF2 | $4.0 PP | - |
| Stronghold Crusader 2 | 0.9 TF2 | $1.84 PP | - |
| Stronghold Crusader HD | 0.6 TF2 | $1.24 PP | - |
| Stronghold Legends: Steam Edition | 0.9 TF2 | $1.76 PP | - |
| Styx: Shards Of Darkness | 0.9 TF2 | $1.76 PP | - |
| Subnautica | 3.6 TF2 | $7.15 PP | - |
| Summer in Mara | 0.6 TF2 | $1.09 PP | - |
| Sunless Sea | 0.4 TF2 | $0.76 PP | - |
| Sunless Skies | 0.7 TF2 | $1.34 PP | - |
| Sunset Overdrive | 1.0 TF2 | $2.01 PP | - |
| Super Meat Boy | 0.5 TF2 | $1.08 PP | - |
| Superliminal | 1.9 TF2 | $3.84 PP | - |
| Supraland Six Inches Under | 1.5 TF2 | $2.89 PP | - |
| Supreme Commander 2 | 0.8 TF2 | $1.62 PP | - |
| Supreme Commander Forged Alliance | 2.0 TF2 | $4.02 PP | - |
| Surgeon Simulator: Experience Reality | 1.8 TF2 | $3.5 PP | - |
| Survive the Nights | 0.9 TF2 | $1.69 PP | - |
| Surviving Mars | 0.5 TF2 | $0.92 PP | - |
| Surviving the Aftermath | 0.7 TF2 | $1.41 PP | - |
| Sword Art Online Fatal Bullet - Complete Edition | 3.3 TF2 | $6.45 PP | - |
| Sword Art Online Hollow Realization Deluxe Edition | 1.5 TF2 | $3.01 PP | - |
| Syberia: The World Before | 1.2 TF2 | $2.32 PP | - |
| Synth Riders | 3.5 TF2 | $6.96 PP | - |
| THE KING OF FIGHTERS '98 ULTIMATE MATCH FINAL EDITION | 0.4 TF2 | $0.85 PP | - |
| THE KING OF FIGHTERS 2002 UNLIMITED MATCH | 0.6 TF2 | $1.18 PP | - |
| Tales from the Borderlands | 3.4 TF2 | $6.83 PP | - |
| Tales of Berseria | 1.1 TF2 | $2.12 PP | - |
| Tales of Zestiria | 0.9 TF2 | $1.72 PP | - |
| Talisman: Digital Edition | 0.5 TF2 | $0.94 PP | - |
| Tank Mechanic Simulator | 1.1 TF2 | $2.17 PP | - |
| Telltale Batman Shadows Edition | 1.0 TF2 | $1.9 PP | - |
| Terraforming Mars | 0.6 TF2 | $1.15 PP | - |
| Terraria | 2.2 TF2 | $4.26 PP | - |
| The Ascent | 1.1 TF2 | $2.26 PP | - |
| The Battle of Polytopia | 0.4 TF2 | $0.85 PP | - |
| The Beast Inside | 0.4 TF2 | $0.77 PP | - |
| The Blackout Club | 0.6 TF2 | $1.17 PP | - |
| The Dark Pictures Anthology: Little Hope | 1.6 TF2 | $3.12 PP | - |
| The Dark Pictures Anthology: Man of Medan | 2.2 TF2 | $4.42 PP | - |
| The Darkness II | 0.5 TF2 | $0.99 PP | - |
| The Dungeon Of Naheulbeuk: The Amulet Of Chaos | 0.9 TF2 | $1.69 PP | - |
| The Escapists 2 | 0.9 TF2 | $1.85 PP | - |
| The Escapists | 0.6 TF2 | $1.13 PP | - |
| The Henry Stickmin Collection | 0.7 TF2 | $1.46 PP | - |
| The Incredible Adventures of Van Helsing Final Cut | 1.3 TF2 | $2.67 PP | - |
| The Intruder | 2.2 TF2 | $4.28 PP | - |
| The Jackbox Party Pack 2 | 2.0 TF2 | $4.02 PP | - |
| The Jackbox Party Pack 3 | 2.9 TF2 | $5.76 PP | - |
| The Jackbox Party Pack 4 | 2.1 TF2 | $4.14 PP | - |
| The Jackbox Party Pack 5 | 3.1 TF2 | $6.15 PP | - |
| The Jackbox Party Pack 6 | 2.8 TF2 | $5.58 PP | - |
| The Jackbox Party Pack | 1.1 TF2 | $2.18 PP | - |
| The LEGO Movie 2 Videogame | 0.4 TF2 | $0.8 PP | - |
| The Last Campfire | 0.4 TF2 | $0.78 PP | - |
| The Legend of Heroes: Trails in the Sky | 1.8 TF2 | $3.57 PP | - |
| The Long Dark | 2.0 TF2 | $4.0 PP | - |
| The Long Dark: Survival Edition | 0.4 TF2 | $0.78 PP | - |
| The Mortuary Assistant | 2.4 TF2 | $4.82 PP | - |
| The Red Solstice 2: Survivors | 0.4 TF2 | $0.78 PP | - |
| The Surge 2 | 0.9 TF2 | $1.83 PP | - |
| The Survivalists | 0.7 TF2 | $1.36 PP | - |
| The Talos Principle | 1.0 TF2 | $2.06 PP | - |
| The Walking Dead: A New Frontier | 0.4 TF2 | $0.71 PP | - |
| The Walking Dead: The Final Season | 0.5 TF2 | $0.92 PP | - |
| The Walking Dead: The Telltale Definitive Series | 2.2 TF2 | $4.41 PP | - |
| The Witness | 3.7 TF2 | $7.29 PP | - |
| The Wolf Among Us | 1.4 TF2 | $2.83 PP | - |
| This Is the Police | 0.4 TF2 | $0.85 PP | - |
| This War of Mine: Complete Edition | 0.7 TF2 | $1.36 PP | - |
| Titan Quest Anniversary Edition | 0.6 TF2 | $1.22 PP | - |
| Torchlight II | 0.6 TF2 | $1.19 PP | - |
| Total Tank Simulator | 0.4 TF2 | $0.74 PP | - |
| Total War SHOGUN 2 | 3.6 TF2 | $7.03 PP | - |
| Total War Shogun 2 Collection | 1.8 TF2 | $3.48 PP | - |
| Total War: ATTILA | 2.1 TF2 | $4.19 PP | - |
| Total War: Empire - Definitive Edition | 1.8 TF2 | $3.61 PP | - |
| Total War: Napoleon - Definitive Edition | 1.6 TF2 | $3.2 PP | - |
| Total War: Rome II - Emperor Edition | 2.8 TF2 | $5.54 PP | - |
| Total War™: WARHAMMER® | 3.2 TF2 | $6.25 PP | - |
| Totally Accurate Battle Simulator | 2.9 TF2 | $5.68 PP | - |
| Totally Reliable Delivery Service | 0.7 TF2 | $1.29 PP | - |
| Tour de France 2020 | 0.6 TF2 | $1.15 PP | - |
| Tower Unite | 5.2 TF2 | $10.39 PP | - |
| Townscaper | 0.6 TF2 | $1.18 PP | - |
| Trailmakers Deluxe Edition | 1.5 TF2 | $2.93 PP | - |
| Train Simulator Classic | 0.9 TF2 | $1.7 PP | - |
| Tribes of Midgard | 0.9 TF2 | $1.8 PP | - |
| Tricky Towers | 2.0 TF2 | $3.98 PP | - |
| Trine 2: Complete Story | 0.4 TF2 | $0.85 PP | - |
| Trine 4: The Nightmare Prince | 1.2 TF2 | $2.42 PP | - |
| Trine Ultimate Collection | 4.2 TF2 | $8.22 PP | - |
| Tropico 5 – Complete Collection | 0.8 TF2 | $1.6 PP | - |
| Tropico 6 El-Prez Edition | 2.6 TF2 | $5.07 PP | - |
| Tropico 6 | 2.3 TF2 | $4.55 PP | - |
| Turmoil | 0.4 TF2 | $0.73 PP | - |
| Turok | 0.4 TF2 | $0.76 PP | - |
| Two Point Hospital | 2.2 TF2 | $4.28 PP | - |
| Tyranny - Gold Edition | 0.6 TF2 | $1.22 PP | - |
| Ultimate Chicken Horse | 1.8 TF2 | $3.57 PP | - |
| Ultimate Fishing Simulator | 0.5 TF2 | $0.92 PP | - |
| Ultimate Marvel vs. Capcom 3 | 1.7 TF2 | $3.4 PP | - |
| Ultra Street Fighter IV | 0.6 TF2 | $1.15 PP | - |
| Undertale | 2.1 TF2 | $4.07 PP | - |
| Universe Sandbox | 4.6 TF2 | $9.15 PP | - |
| Unrailed! | 1.5 TF2 | $3.0 PP | - |
| Until You Fall | 0.7 TF2 | $1.4 PP | - |
| VTOL VR | 6.6 TF2 | $13.01 PP | - |
| Vacation Simulator | 5.2 TF2 | $10.32 PP | - |
| Vagante | 0.7 TF2 | $1.41 PP | - |
| Valkyria Chronicles 4 Complete Edition | 1.5 TF2 | $2.93 PP | - |
| Vampyr | 1.7 TF2 | $3.27 PP | - |
| Verdun | 0.4 TF2 | $0.73 PP | - |
| Victor Vran | 0.8 TF2 | $1.62 PP | - |
| Visage | 3.0 TF2 | $5.87 PP | - |
| Viscera Cleanup Detail | 1.9 TF2 | $3.75 PP | - |
| Void Bastards | 0.4 TF2 | $0.84 PP | - |
| Volcanoids | 1.4 TF2 | $2.81 PP | - |
| Vox Machinae | 3.4 TF2 | $6.78 PP | - |
| Wargame European Escalation | 0.4 TF2 | $0.72 PP | - |
| Wargame: Red Dragon | 5.3 TF2 | $10.56 PP | - |
| Warhammer 40,000: Chaos Gate - Daemonhunters | Humble Choice (May 2023) | ||
| Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War - Master Collection | 1.6 TF2 | $3.12 PP | - |
| Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War II - Grand Master Collection | 2.0 TF2 | $3.93 PP | - |
| Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War II: Retribution | 0.8 TF2 | $1.62 PP | - |
| Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War | 1.0 TF2 | $1.95 PP | - |
| Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Tyranids | 1.6 TF2 | $3.12 PP | - |
| Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine Collection | 2.1 TF2 | $4.07 PP | - |
| Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine | 1.7 TF2 | $3.29 PP | - |
| Warhammer: Chaosbane - Slayer Edition | 1.1 TF2 | $2.09 PP | - |
| Warhammer: End Times - Vermintide Collector's Edition | 0.7 TF2 | $1.38 PP | - |
| Warhammer: Vermintide 2 - Collector's Edition | 1.5 TF2 | $3.02 PP | - |
| Warhammer: Vermintide 2 | 0.8 TF2 | $1.52 PP | - |
| Warhammer® 40,000: Dawn of War® II | 0.6 TF2 | $1.26 PP | - |
| Warhammer® 40,000™: Dawn of War® III | 1.7 TF2 | $3.33 PP | - |
| Warpips | 0.8 TF2 | $1.53 PP | - |
| Wasteland 3 | 1.3 TF2 | $2.55 PP | - |
| We Happy Few | 0.8 TF2 | $1.62 PP | - |
| We Need to Go Deeper | 1.7 TF2 | $3.34 PP | - |
| We Were Here Too | 0.9 TF2 | $1.81 PP | - |
| White Day : a labyrinth named school | 0.6 TF2 | $1.25 PP | - |
| Who's Your Daddy | 1.7 TF2 | $3.31 PP | - |
| Wingspan | 1.2 TF2 | $2.37 PP | - |
| Winkeltje: The Little Shop | 1.1 TF2 | $2.18 PP | - |
| Witch It | 3.3 TF2 | $6.54 PP | - |
| Wizard of Legend | 1.4 TF2 | $2.86 PP | - |
| Worms W.M.D | 1.1 TF2 | $2.24 PP | - |
| Wurm Unlimited | 0.7 TF2 | $1.45 PP | - |
| X4: Foundations | 5.8 TF2 | $11.48 PP | - |
| X4: Split Vendetta | 1.9 TF2 | $3.8 PP | - |
| XCOM 2 Collection | 1.4 TF2 | $2.79 PP | - |
| XCOM: Enemy Unknown Complete Pack | 0.8 TF2 | $1.6 PP | - |
| XCOM: Ultimate Collection | 1.2 TF2 | $2.42 PP | - |
| Yakuza 0 | 2.0 TF2 | $3.96 PP | - |
| Yakuza 3 Remastered | 1.1 TF2 | $2.24 PP | - |
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2023.06.02 23:58 the_orange_alligator Tips for getting sticker off without damaging box?
 | submitted by the_orange_alligator to funkopop [link] [comments] |
2023.06.02 23:52 AllOfMyTeamsSuck Packed exactly 0 Ligue 1 TOTS but 4 hours after they’re out of packs this guy pops up tradeable 😂
 | submitted by AllOfMyTeamsSuck to fut [link] [comments] |
2023.06.02 23:49 Visible_Pop8553 New Homeowner - Oil to Gas Conversion
 | Hi all! First time poster. submitted by Visible_Pop8553 to hvacadvice [link] [comments] We bought a house in 2021 that had an oil heat system. Things weren't too bad over the first winter with fuel prices relatively low in 2021, but we got quickly fed up with the oil cost (and our oil company, long story) over last winter so we decided to make the switch to natural gas. Our existing system is 12-14 years old according to our home inspection. We got a set of quotes from our oil supplier (pic #1) that seemed really high. A second quote from a local company (pic #2) seems much more reasonable, but I don't know if the difference in equipment is worth the lower price. We have a state program that will pay rebates on the installs of around $1700. The oil company said their "best" install would qualify for an additional $3-500 in rebates. Any perspectives would be greatly appreciated. House details: 2200sqft, two stories, 5b/2.5ba, located in the mid-Atlantic |
2023.06.02 23:48 Shark_Attack-A As expected the only tots from serie A that I will pack. One of this will be in my serie A tots guaranteed and the serie A tots from the cup 😊
 | submitted by Shark_Attack-A to fut [link] [comments] |
2023.06.02 23:45 penisgenitals [Picón] Operation Havertz in effect: player is in the interest of Real Madrid and is seen as a cheap option in terms of value for money.
Translated by DeepL:
Kai Havertz has entered Real Madrid's orbit. The club values the German as a luxury reinforcement for the Real Madrid forward line, regardless of what happens in the end with Karim Benzema. He is a versatile player, with a style of play that, at times, resembles that of the Frenchman. However, it is still a complex operation, with numerous conditions that the club will have to study when it comes to going all out for his signature.
The first and most important one has a name and surname: Harry Kane. The Englishman was, when Benzema was in the air, the number one choice of the sporting management and the coaching staff as a reinforcement for the forward line. However, in favour of Havertz (23 years old), bringing him in would mean an investment of millions of euros, which would probably exceed 100 million euros in transfer fees, as well as a very high salary on the wage scale. The chances of signing Kane would increase if Karim decides to leave for Arabia, which remains to be seen, while bringing in Harry and Kai in the same market would be a cost that would be difficult to fit into the budget.
For this reason, the captain's continuity favours the incorporation of the German, who does not believe 100% in Chelsea's project and would open the door to a move to Real Madrid. Real Madrid has first-hand knowledge of his situation. In the directive, a defender above the rest: Juni Calafat. The head of international recruitment already wanted to sign him when he was playing for Bayer Leverkusen, before the pandemic, but the arrival of the coronavirus sabotaged any operation. Carlo Ancelotti also likes him a lot.
Chelsea in financial trouble
At Valdebebas they do not know the exact price of the striker, although they believe he is the cheapest option in terms of value for money. Other profiles have been considered, but with a higher price tag. In this respect, it is worth noting that Chelsea's finances are shaky. It is not a question of liquidity, but of Financial Fair Play, to the point that the Blues are trying to reduce the wages of some of their players through deferred salary renewals or reductions in exchange for years. One of them, Havertz, who is still valued as one of their stars and who has been approached to try to extend his contract, which expires in 2025.
Communicating that he wants to leave would motivate Chelsea to look for a sale to alleviate their financial situation. In that case, Madrid will enter uncharted territory: negotiating with Todd Boehly. People who have met the American speak of him as an unpredictable man. Numerous deals were made with the former ownership, with Roman Abramovich at the head and Marina Granovskaia, former CEO and right-hand woman of the Russian tycoon. Courtois, Hazard, Kovacic and Morata, names that have been on the negotiating table, but have not yet been discussed with the new board.
A process is beginning that will last several weeks and in which Real Madrid will measure every step. At Valdebebas, they are facing the market with the need to know that they need top level reinforcements to fight for everything next season, with the difficulty of signing stars. Kai Havertz, the latest to come to the fore.
submitted by penisgenitals to soccer [link] [comments]
Kai Havertz has entered Real Madrid's orbit. The club values the German as a luxury reinforcement for the Real Madrid forward line, regardless of what happens in the end with Karim Benzema. He is a versatile player, with a style of play that, at times, resembles that of the Frenchman. However, it is still a complex operation, with numerous conditions that the club will have to study when it comes to going all out for his signature.
The first and most important one has a name and surname: Harry Kane. The Englishman was, when Benzema was in the air, the number one choice of the sporting management and the coaching staff as a reinforcement for the forward line. However, in favour of Havertz (23 years old), bringing him in would mean an investment of millions of euros, which would probably exceed 100 million euros in transfer fees, as well as a very high salary on the wage scale. The chances of signing Kane would increase if Karim decides to leave for Arabia, which remains to be seen, while bringing in Harry and Kai in the same market would be a cost that would be difficult to fit into the budget.
For this reason, the captain's continuity favours the incorporation of the German, who does not believe 100% in Chelsea's project and would open the door to a move to Real Madrid. Real Madrid has first-hand knowledge of his situation. In the directive, a defender above the rest: Juni Calafat. The head of international recruitment already wanted to sign him when he was playing for Bayer Leverkusen, before the pandemic, but the arrival of the coronavirus sabotaged any operation. Carlo Ancelotti also likes him a lot.
Chelsea in financial trouble
At Valdebebas they do not know the exact price of the striker, although they believe he is the cheapest option in terms of value for money. Other profiles have been considered, but with a higher price tag. In this respect, it is worth noting that Chelsea's finances are shaky. It is not a question of liquidity, but of Financial Fair Play, to the point that the Blues are trying to reduce the wages of some of their players through deferred salary renewals or reductions in exchange for years. One of them, Havertz, who is still valued as one of their stars and who has been approached to try to extend his contract, which expires in 2025.
Communicating that he wants to leave would motivate Chelsea to look for a sale to alleviate their financial situation. In that case, Madrid will enter uncharted territory: negotiating with Todd Boehly. People who have met the American speak of him as an unpredictable man. Numerous deals were made with the former ownership, with Roman Abramovich at the head and Marina Granovskaia, former CEO and right-hand woman of the Russian tycoon. Courtois, Hazard, Kovacic and Morata, names that have been on the negotiating table, but have not yet been discussed with the new board.
A process is beginning that will last several weeks and in which Real Madrid will measure every step. At Valdebebas, they are facing the market with the need to know that they need top level reinforcements to fight for everything next season, with the difficulty of signing stars. Kai Havertz, the latest to come to the fore.
2023.06.02 23:41 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to u/bigbear0083 [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)
Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.06.02 23:40 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on WallStreetStockMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead WallStreetStockMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to WallStreetStockMarket [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)
Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.06.02 23:39 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketForums! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketForums. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarketForums [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)
Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.06.02 23:39 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on EarningsWhispers! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead EarningsWhispers. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to EarningsWhispers [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
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(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
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Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
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Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
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Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
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Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
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(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
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DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.06.02 23:38 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StocksMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StocksMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StocksMarket [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
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Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
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Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)
Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.06.02 23:38 joe6386 Six Glazer siblings to retain Man Utd stakes under Ratcliffe offer -FT
https://www.ft.com/content/81d56a02-ec1e-44b8-a7f6-8ba570398643 The six Glazer siblings could retain stakes in Manchester United in a proposed phased takeover of the football club by Sir Jim Ratcliffe, who is seeking a way through the share structure and family dynamics which have complicated the deal.The Glazer family started a strategic review more than six months ago but the process has dragged on with only two full takeover bids emerging for one of the biggest names in global sports
The offer from Ratcliffe and his Ineos chemicals empire is complicated because, unlike a rival proposal from a Qatari bidder, he is not seeking to acquire 100 per cent of United’s shares in one go, according to people close to the discussions.United has a listing on the New York Stock Exchange but the Glazers control 95 per cent of the voting rights thanks to a special class of B shares. The publicly traded A shares, which are largely held by minority shareholders, have minimal voting power.
Ratcliffe, who flew to New York for talks last month, is seeking to acquire at least enough B shares to hand him control of the club, in an offer that is not expected to be extended to common shareholders.
Some people in the process and those with links to the club had expected that United co-chairs Joel and Avram Glazer wanted a deal that would allow them to keep their shares and extend their stay, with their four siblings — Bryan, Darcie, Edward and Kevin — exiting in full.
Multiple people said the process, which was first announced in November last year, has been complicated by a lack of cohesion among the six Glazer siblings. The Glazers have also received several offers from investment firms to provide funds to inject into the club without a change of control.
However, two people with knowledge of the matter said the Glazers are now focused on a structure that would allow the six siblings to sell down their holdings in proportion to their holdings, allowing Ratcliffe to take control.
Ratcliffe and Ineos would buy the remainder of the Glazers’ shares in the coming years through derivatives contracts.
The structure of Ratcliffe’s bid means that he can part with less capital up front, obtain majority control and invest in the club.
“The penny has started to drop,” said one of the people. “There’s no requirement to make an offer for all shareholders.”
Uncertainty surrounding a deal has depressed United’s publicly traded shares since their mid-February peak of $27. At its current share price of $18.63, United’s equity is valued at around $3bn.
One issue around Ratcliffe’s plan to buy the B shares is that United stock exchange filings say the class B shares are “automatically and immediately” converted into class A shares on transfer from the Glazers “to a person or entity that is not an affiliate of the holder”.
One possible solution is for the Glazers to vote through changes that would allow the B shares to pass over to Ratcliffe without turning into A shares, two people close to the process said.
The Ineos group has remained flexible on structuring to increase its chances of winning over the Glazers, in a bid expected to value United at more than £5bn ($6.25bn), including debt. No deal is guaranteed and the structure could change, the people warned.
Despite growing frustrations among fans for clarity on the club’s ownership, no deal is expected imminently. United’s performance on the pitch has improved this season, with its final match at Wembley on Saturday in the FA Cup final against crosstown rival Manchester City.
The club has already won the League Cup and finished in third place in the Premier League, meaning it has qualified for the lucrative Uefa Champions League next season.
2023.06.02 23:37 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on FinancialMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead FinancialMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to FinancialMarket [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)
Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.06.02 23:35 Jack_dudan10 Alternative to the Novritsch ssx23
Hello. I recently finished upgrading my primary (cyma m4 with a 14.5 inch barrel) and it shoots really hot for the field I play at, especially with how high the weeds are right now. Because of this, and it’s shear size, I’ve been looking for a secondary. The idea of it being an extremely quiet pistol is appealing to me and therefore I am drawn to the ssx23 from Novritsch. However, I hear bad things about the trigger pull due to it being non-gas blow back.
Are there any gas blow back pistols or even non gas blow backs that are pretty quiet. (doesn’t have to be as quiet as ssx23 or tm-mk23)?
I like the Novritsch ssp-5 because it seems accurate and relatively quiet/efficient but I hear it is over priced. Ideally I’d like to stay undearound 200 but don’t mind pushing it to bed a little more expensive if it’s worth it.
Thank you
submitted by Jack_dudan10 to airsoft [link] [comments]
Are there any gas blow back pistols or even non gas blow backs that are pretty quiet. (doesn’t have to be as quiet as ssx23 or tm-mk23)?
I like the Novritsch ssp-5 because it seems accurate and relatively quiet/efficient but I hear it is over priced. Ideally I’d like to stay undearound 200 but don’t mind pushing it to bed a little more expensive if it’s worth it.
Thank you
2023.06.02 23:35 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on stocks! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead stocks. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to stocks [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
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(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(*T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)
Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
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DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?2023.06.02 23:34 Kindly_Maize8141 Should I go to my sister wedding or cancel me and the groom don’t have a great relationship
Me and her fiancé don’t get along a lot of it comes from him being a selfish only child. I got him some fine Cuban cigars in Florida and he did not say thank you when I dropped them off with my sister he could not put down call or duty and that rubbed me the wrong way. The cigars where for his bachelor party. His father is a real cuck and I don’t get along with him either he’s a bumbling idiot who always says stupid shit at any large gathering and I have had some words with him as well. I get along with his mom because she likes the same nfl Team (Seahawks). His parents divorced and his mom is always ripping on the cuck dad about what a loser he etc I jump on that because I hate his dad and fights have broken out.
I told the dad your wife left you for a real man an outdoors type hunter like me not some cuck who is weak and sensitive like he is (guy crys a lot) also called him out when he did not like the elk meat I offered him.
We tried to bury the hatchet for the wedding on the condition that he buys me a Watch of the value of 200 dollars price I paid for the cigars for him. He told me to fuck off and I ain’t buying you anything.
My sister also wanted me to wear a suit to the wedding said I would on the condition she pay for it she said no I ain’t doing that so I had to rent one but I can still cancel if need be.
https://www.reddit.com/wedding/comments/130791l/sister_is_getting_married_she_wants_me_to_wear_a/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1
That post was another story
Basically, this is what it comes down to. I’m a busy man I work over 40 hours a week how do you spend $250 out of my own money that I could’ve spent on ammo for my gun collection to attend this wedding.
I told my sister, you and your fiancé better start showing some fucking gratitude because I got him some cigars for his party and his dad better not say dumb shit around me they brought the cuck father to Christmas past 2 years and me the dad got into arguments there.
In conclusion, I told her it’s a privilege not a right that I’m even attending your wedding because I have to take two days off work find a pet sitter get a hotel room, gas, money, etc. start showing respect. And all can be made whole with your fiancé buying me a watch.
submitted by Kindly_Maize8141 to wedding [link] [comments]
I told the dad your wife left you for a real man an outdoors type hunter like me not some cuck who is weak and sensitive like he is (guy crys a lot) also called him out when he did not like the elk meat I offered him.
We tried to bury the hatchet for the wedding on the condition that he buys me a Watch of the value of 200 dollars price I paid for the cigars for him. He told me to fuck off and I ain’t buying you anything.
My sister also wanted me to wear a suit to the wedding said I would on the condition she pay for it she said no I ain’t doing that so I had to rent one but I can still cancel if need be.
https://www.reddit.com/wedding/comments/130791l/sister_is_getting_married_she_wants_me_to_wear_a/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1
That post was another story
Basically, this is what it comes down to. I’m a busy man I work over 40 hours a week how do you spend $250 out of my own money that I could’ve spent on ammo for my gun collection to attend this wedding.
I told my sister, you and your fiancé better start showing some fucking gratitude because I got him some cigars for his party and his dad better not say dumb shit around me they brought the cuck father to Christmas past 2 years and me the dad got into arguments there.
In conclusion, I told her it’s a privilege not a right that I’m even attending your wedding because I have to take two days off work find a pet sitter get a hotel room, gas, money, etc. start showing respect. And all can be made whole with your fiancé buying me a watch.
2023.06.02 23:33 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarketChat [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
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Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
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Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
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May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
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How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
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When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
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There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
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This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
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Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
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Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
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All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
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Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
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Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
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Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
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(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
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Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
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Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
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Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
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Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
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DISCUSS!
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2023.06.02 23:31 jab136 Ticker that halted and didn't resume last week is still halted, there was also a halt that showed up in the data today that claims to have started on May 6 and resumed today. Problem is that May 6 was a Saturday. We really need a glitch better have my money flair.
 | There weren't a ton of halts during this short week, the highest day was yesterday with 29 halts on 11 tickers. The 20 day average dropped from the 90th percentile last Friday down to just barely in the 70th percentile today because it lost the 5 days from about a month ago when there were an average of more than 100 halts per day. The 50 day average remained in the 80th percentile all week. submitted by jab136 to Superstonk [link] [comments] Ok, now on to my regular post... Disclaimer due to recent issues in relation to brigading. I am simply attempting to provide a metric for market wide volatility as a possible alternative to other volatility indices such as VIX. I will talk about quite a few tickers other than GME, but that is simply an attempt to comment on odd or interesting behavior from those stocks that didn't match with the average. I am not advocating for or against any of those other tickers, simply attempting to give data and context for that data. I originally started looking at halt data when I got curious about which other stocks halted between Jan 27 and Jan 29 of 2021 to see if I could find a pattern or some interesting data that might be useful down the line. For anyone wondering what use it is to have a volatility index or why an alternative to VIX could be useful, this comment chain from my post on December 26th 2022 gives a pretty good ELIA. Also, there has been a lot of chatter on and off over the last few years about VIX and I for one would love to have an alternative that it can just be compared to since more data is always better IMO. VIX ELIA Using education tag this week because of the glitched tickers. Previous posts on this topic An analysis of all of the stocks that halted in the first minute of trading on 1/24/23. (part 1 part 2) Daily post about 12/9 with highest number of halts on a single ticker in over 2 years. Recent daily tracking post with info about halts going way past 16:00:00 EST NYSE halt tracking page is seeing some glitches (or possible just odd behavior) over the last few days. (Posted 9/30) Market Wide Limit Up Limit Down (LULD halts) significantly higher than normal. Over 100 halts today on 28 different tickers. (posted on August 2) An analysis of every stock that had an LULD halt between Jan 27 and Jan 29 of last year. (posted June 15) Adding a further TLDR per mod request; LULD halts are volatility halts on a specific ticker that halts trading for a minimum of 5 minutes on that ticker. Several months ago I realized that the NYSE records all the halts that happen every trading day and save them on a website. So knowing this, I wondered if I could possibly find other tickers that had a significant number of halts between Jan 27 and Jan 29 of last year. When I looked at the data, I found a lot of the usual suspects and a few other tickers that hadn't really been discussed previously very much as possible swap basket stocks. I also found that, while the volume of halts did spike in that period last year, the highest period by far in the available data was in mid March 2020. So I theorized that halts are likely correlated to market volatility and may provide an alternative metric to VIX. There has also been some odd activity with resume times for some halts going significantly into after hours (halts typically resume by 16:00:01 EST at the latest).Ok, now that that is out of the way, I have continued monitoring the NYSE page that tracks halts. Wednesday, and Thursday both had halts going into the closing bell this week. Both days had a resume at 16:00:00 EST which is completely normal. However there are now 2 tickers that are having very odd behavior with multi day halts. As I posted on Monday there was a ticker that had a halt last Wednesday 5/24 that hadn't resumed by the end of last week. It has remained halted through this entire week and is still showing up in the halts data. The historic data is also showing several halts all starting at the same time on that ticker when it halted last week, I am only including a single halt. There was another ticker that had very odd behavior in terms of a nearly month long halt that started on a Saturday somehow. It had not shown up previously as a volatility (LULD) halt so I am not completely certain what is going on. There was only one ticker this week that had more than 10 halts, that ticker was SDA (SunCar Technology Group Inc.) . This seems to be a chinese company that deals in auto and truck insurance. The news page on yahoo has absolutely no news for this company however it appears that something is definitely going on with it over the last few months. It was trading very steadily at around $10 for years, and then on April 14 it dropped to close at $8 after hitting a low of $6.71. It has been very volatile ever since, and then it had 28 halts this week. 15 of the halts were on Tuesday when it went from an opening price of $18.61 to a closing price of $43.05 (+309.61%) which was also the daily high. It leveled off a bit yesterday and had a very volatile day (low was $26.63, high was $45.73) however it closed at $43.31. It plummeted today, opening all the way down at $31.06, it had a high of $40.35 and closed at $21.34 (-46.20%). I have absolutely no idea what exactly is going on but something is definitely going on. MEOA (Minority Equality Opportunities Acquisition Inc) is a shell company or SPAC out of Texas. It has been trading for a while. It was supposed to have it's shareholders meeting on last Tuesday (5/23), but it was postponed to Wednesday, then to Friday then again to this past Wednesday (5/31). It closed last Tuesday at $11.05, then rocketed to a high of $43.50 before falling down to $26.54 at the time of the halt. It has not resumed and no trades have been made since then. It had 15 halts last Wednesday. It doesn't have another shareholder meeting postponement on yahoo finance, but it also still hasn't resumed. SNMP (Evolve Transition Infrastructure LP) is an oil and gas company out of Texas. It has been trading for a while but has been having some issues recently meeting the continued listing requirements since it is trading at just $0.06 per share currently. Today's data from the NYSE lists it as having been paused on 5/6/2023 at 12:03:15 EST and shows a resume today at 09:35:25. Adding to my confusion here is the fact that it has been trading for that entire period and was not listed previously in the data from that week. This is a penny stock so it could be something related to that, but IDK. The table with halts that had multi day halts or halts without a resume time is going to stay at the top of the post this week because of MEOA and SNMP. All tickers that have halted one day and not resumed until the next or don't have a resume date on NYSE page
The daily, 5 day, and 20 day total halts are a simple sum (sum the tickers from the data for the daily, sum the daily totals for the multi day totals). The Daily tickers with halts, 5 day total tickers with halts, and 20 day total tickers with halts only count any individual ticker once. If a ticker has 5 halts in one day, it still only counts as 1 ticker that day. If a ticker halts 3 different days it only counts as ticker in the 5 or 20 day totals. All of the percentages are actually percentiles and are calculated as percentile=100*(1-x/n) where x is the number of days with an equal or higher number of halts than the day being looked at and n is the number of days in the data (891 this week). I am also including a table giving the cutoff values for 70th, 80th and 90th percentiles in total and unique halts for the daily, 5 day, 20 day, and 50 day averages. This value will change from week to week and be applied retroactively to all past dates. Percentile target values
Total halts comparisons
No tickers that halted between Jan 22 and Feb 2 of 2021 had any halts this week. Here is the table with the halts on GME and the Headphone stock during the sneeze these two tickers get mentioned every week for obvious reasons on GME, but Headphone actually had more total halts and only 1 less day in a row with halts than we did.
52 week total halts 52 week unique halts Current halts Current unique halts Total halts going back to 2019 for scale Unique halts data going back to 2019 for scale Ratio of total halts to unique tickers Total halts daily distribution Unique halts daily distribution Top 10 days with most tickers with halts since August 2019
Here are the plots for each full calendar year, as well as the 2 other periods where total halts broke 100 in a single day 2020 total halts 2020 unique halts 2021 total halts 2021 unique halts 2022 total halts 2022 unique halts Pandemic crash total halts Pandemic crash unique halts Sneeze total halts Sneeze unique halts |
2023.06.02 23:26 todomo bottom of my childhood dresser drawer
 | submitted by todomo to KingCrimsonCircleJerk [link] [comments] |
2023.06.02 23:20 cblguy82 Potential new buyer: Things to know, consider, ask etc especially as 1st time EV owner
I need to pickup a new vehicle after my lease is up in a couple months. New lease deals on ID4 Pro S FWD model seem to fit my price range.
I've read here and there about electric vehicles but would like to get guidance on things you wish you knew or maybe I should consider planning for on as a first time EV buyer.
TIA!
submitted by cblguy82 to VolkswagenID4 [link] [comments]
I've read here and there about electric vehicles but would like to get guidance on things you wish you knew or maybe I should consider planning for on as a first time EV buyer.
- Both of us WFH, so driving is just shopping, kids, misc and maybe consider road tripping in this about 200-300 trips. Or we just take our gas SUV for road trips which is bigger anyway.
- I've owned and own various VW cars
- I have a very close chargepoint station(s) provided by my town. Depending on need, not sure if I need to spend the money on a L2 charger in the garage. Or is there allowances for installation of one from VW I should be aware of?
- family of 4, doing all the typical younger and early teen life stuff with drop offs ,sports etc...
- Don't care about AWD/4WD. Maybe hopping a curb or 2 when parking at the schools are tight
- Mid Atlantic coastal state. So it gets warm in the summer, not too cold in the winter. Maybe a couple below freezing nights but not typical
- Are ID4s considered for that $7500 subsidy?
- Other discounts, advantages or similar I should be aware of? Taxes?
- Insurance cost go up much?
TIA!